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World Development Volume 96, Issue 8, August 2017 1. Title: Technology Adoption and Employment in Less Developed Countries: A Mixed-Method Systematic Review Authors: Mehmet Ugur, Arup Mitra. Abstract: The implications of technology adoption for productivity, income, and welfare have been studied widely in the context of less developed countries (LDCs). In contrast, the relationship between technology adoption and employment has attracted less interest. This systematic review evaluates the diverse yet sizeable evidence base that has remained below the radars of both reviewers and policy makers. We map the qualitative and empirical evidence and report that the effect of technology adoption on employment is skill biased and more likely to be observed when technology adoption favors product innovation as opposed to process innovation. Technology adoption is also less likely to be associated with employment creation when: (i) the evidence is related to farm employment as opposed to firm/industry employment; (ii) the evidence is related to low-income countries as opposed to lower middle-income or mixed countries; and (iii) the evidence is based on post-2001 data as opposed to pre-2001 data. There is also qualitative evidence indicating that international trade, weak forward and backward linkages, and weaknesses in governance and labor-market institutions tend to weaken the job-creating effects of technology adoption. We conclude by calling for compilation of better quality survey data and further attention to sources of heterogeneity in modeling the relationship between technology adoption and employment in LDCs. 2. Title: Decomposing the Gender Wealth Gap in Ecuador Authors: Boaz Anglade, Pilar Useche, Carmen Diana Deere. Abstract: Unlike the gender earnings gap that has been amply studied, the gender wealth gap has only recently begun to receive attention. Studies of the gender wealth gap have been concentrated on developed countries and have been limited by the use of household-level data. Using individual-level and sex-disaggregated wealth data for Ecuador, this paper examines the pattern of wealth inequality across genders, at different points of the wealth distribution, for sole and then partnered household heads. We use a new Oaxaca-Blinder-type decomposition method based on unconditional quantile regression to investigate the sources of the gap at different quantiles. Our results show that among sole heads the gap favors men across the distribution and is largest at the lower tail. Among partnered heads, the gap is much less pronounced throughout the distribution, actually reverting at the lower tail. For both sole and partnered heads, at the lower tail of the distribution, the gender gap is primarily associated with differing returns to covariates. At the median and upper quantiles, gender differences in endowments (ownership of savings accounts, education, and age) drive the gap. Gender bias in inheritance plays a significant role only at lower and median wealth levels. Overall, our results show stark contrasts with results for developed countries and important differences between sole versus partnered heads. Our study also adds evidence to the long-standing debate over whether female household heads are poorer than male heads and calls for the pursuit of wealth-differentiated policies and social programs to increase women’s participation in the formal economy, as well as the returns to their participation. 3. Title: Learn from the Past, Prepare for the Future: Impacts of Education and Experience on Disaster Preparedness in the Philippines and Thailand Authors: Roman Hoffmann, Raya Muttarak. Abstract: This study aims at understanding the role of education in promoting disaster preparedness. Strengthening resilience to climate-related hazards is an urgent target of Goal 13 of the Sustainable Development Goals. Preparing for a disaster such as stockpiling of emergency supplies or having a family evacuation plan can substantially minimize loss and damages from natural hazards. However, the levels of household disaster preparedness are often low even in disaster-prone areas. Focusing on determinants of personal disaster preparedness, this paper investigates: (1) pathways through which education enhances preparedness; and (2) the interplay between education and experience in shaping preparedness actions. Data analysis is based on face-to-face surveys of adults aged e"15 years in Thailand (N = 1,310) and the Philippines (N = 889, female only). Controlling for socio-demographic and contextual characteristics, we find that formal education raises the propensity to prepare against disasters. Using the KHB method to further decompose the education effects, we find that the effect of education on disaster preparedness is mainly mediated through social capital and disaster risk perception in Thailand whereas there is no evidence that education is mediated through observable channels in the Philippines. This suggests that the underlying mechanisms explaining the education effects are highly context-specific. Controlling for the interplay between education and disaster experience, we show that education raises disaster preparedness only for those households that have not been affected by a disaster in the past. Education improves abstract reasoning and anticipation skills such that the better educated undertake preventive measures without needing to first experience the harmful event and then learn later. In line with recent efforts of various UN agencies in promoting education for sustainable development, this study provides a solid empirical evidence showing positive externalities of education in disaster risk reduction. 4. Title: Does the Development Discourse Learn from History? Authors: Albert Sanghoon Park Abstract: What is the nature and extent of historical awareness in the development discourse? Does the development discourse learn from history, including its own? Set in the contexts of aging development institutions and a changing geopolitical climate, this paper provides one account through a historiographical survey of 136 journal articles across 10 leading development journals. It uncovers a substantial body of works, which offer descriptive histories, derivative lessons, and historiographical critiques. Altogether, they evidence two modes in which the development discourse attempts to learn from history. The first lies in the proactive use of external histories as empirical evidence for a variety of development issues. This is the predominant mode exhibited in the survey. A second mode lies in the use of internal histories of the development discourse, itself. Here, the survey finds a number of noteworthy but largely disparate efforts. This suggests a relative dearth in historiographical self-consciousness for a narrow but influential segment of the development discourse. A number of consequences are considered, ultimately responding to the legitimacy, efficacy, and sustainability of development action. In sum, our survey finds that the mainstream development journal discourse is adept at learning from external histories, but not necessarily from its own. Evidence, however, suggests that it can. A case is made for why it must. 5. Title: Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks: Evidence from Ethiopia Authors: Ruth Vargas Hill, Catherine Porter. Abstract: While the measurement and determinants of poverty have been widely studied, vulnerability, or the threat of future poverty, has been more difficult to investigate due to data paucity. We combine nationally representative household data with objective drought and price information to quantify and investigate causes of vulnerability to poverty in Ethiopia. Previous estimates have relied on self-reported shocks and variation in outcomes within a survey, which is inadequate for shocks such as weather and prices that vary more across time than space. We used historical distributions of climate and price shocks in each district to simulate the probable distribution of future consumption for individual households and use these quantify vulnerability to poverty. We find that many Ethiopians are unable to protect their consumption against lack of rainfall and sudden increases in food prices. A moderate drought causes a 9% reduction in consumption for many rural households and recent high inflation has caused a 14% reduction in the consumption of uneducated households in urban areas. We also find that the vulnerability of rural households is considerably higher than that of urban households, despite realized poverty rates being fairly similar. This reflects the fact that the household survey in 2011 was conducted during a year of good rainfall but rapid food price inflation. The results highlight the need for caution in using a snapshot of poverty to target programs, as underlying rates of vulnerability can be quite different from the poverty rate captured at one point in time. The results also suggest that significant welfare gains can be made from risk management in both rural and urban areas. 6. Title: Hunger and the Experience of Being Well: Absolute and Relative Concerns Authors: Mariano Rojas, Jorge Guardiola. Abstract: The lessening of hunger is central to the development agenda; however, there is little research on how it ends up impacting on people’s experience of being well. Research on this impact is crucial for the design of hunger alleviation programs as well as for the measurement and understanding of hunger. It is also important to understand people’s motivation and reaction to interventions. This paper studies the impact of hunger on four different experiences of being well: evaluative, positive affects, negative affects, and sensory. The paper distinguishes between absolute and relative effects of hunger on people’s well-being. Information from the Gallup World Poll 2006 for 88 countries in the world is used to quantitatively study the well-being relevance of hunger. It is found that hunger is highly detrimental to people’s well-being, which provides a justification for making substantial efforts to alleviate it. In addition, relative effects are important in the evaluative and negative-affect experiences; which means that hunger alleviation programs do not only impact positively on the well-being of those benefiting from the programs but also negatively on the well-being of those who—out of different reasons—are left behind. Thus, counting success on the number of people who are getting out of hunger does not provide the complete well-being picture, because those who are left behind may also be negatively affected by these programs. In consequence, in order to enhance their well-being impact it is important for hunger alleviation programs to be broadly inclusive, aiming not to leave anybody behind. 7. Title: Tax Incentives and Job Creation in the Tourism Sector of Brazil’s SUDENE Area Authors: Grégoire Garsous, David Corderi, Mercedes Velasco, Andrea Colombo. Abstract: In recent decades, a significant number of developing countries have implemented fiscal incentives programs for the tourism industry as part of their regional development policies. The main objective of these programs is to increase local investment and employment, as tourism activities are labor intensive. Little evidence is available, however, to assess the effect of these policies on job creation in emerging markets. In this paper, we analyze a program of fiscal incentives introduced by the Brazilian federal government in the SUDENE area in 2002 and in which tourism firms were eligible to participate. Through a difference-in-difference estimation, we compare the change in the logarithm of local employment in the SUDENE municipalities before and after 2002 to the change in the same outcome in a group of municipalities that were not affected by the program. Although our empirical analysis does not measure the efficiency of a similar fiscal policy, it is the first one in the literature to show its effectiveness. It provides evidence that the fiscal incentives led to a substantial increase in tourism employment in the SUDENE area. We find that, over the period 2002–09, municipal tourism employment was on average 30% higher than in the absence of the intervention. This result is robust and is not the consequence of either displacement effects or job destruction in neighboring municipalities that had not been targeted by the tax incentives. We finally discuss some limitations of our analysis that might open avenues for future research in the field. 8. Title: The Development Benefits of Maternity Leave Authors: Kathleen M. Fallon, Alissa Mazar, Liam Swiss. Abstract: Within developing countries, studies addressing the effects of maternity benefits on fertility, infant/child health, and women’s labor force participation are limited and provide contradictory findings. Yet, knowledge regarding the implementation of maternity provisions is essential, as such policies could significantly improve women and children’s well-being. We add to this literature using fixed effects panel regression from 1999 to 2012 across 121 developing countries to explore whether different types of maternity leave policies affect infant/child mortality rates, fertility, and women’s labor force participation, and whether those effects are shaped by disparities in GDP per Capita and Secondary School Enrollment. Our findings demonstrate: (1) both infant and child mortality rates are expected to decline in countries that institute any leave policy, policies that last 12 weeks or longer, and policies that increase in duration and payment (as a percentage of total annual salary), (2) fertility is expected to decline in countries that have higher weekly paid compensation, (3) maternity leave provisions decrease fertility and infant/child mortality rates most in countries with lower GDP per capita and countries with middle-range secondary enrollment rates, and (4) labor force participation does not increase. Our results suggest that policy makers must consider the duration, compensation, and goals (addressing fertility versus mortality rates) of a policy alongside a country’s economic development and secondary school enrollment when determining which maternity leave provisions to apply within developing-country contexts. 9. Title: Neighborhood Associations and the Urban Poor: India’s Slum Development Committees Authors: Adam Michael Auerbach Abstract: How do slum dwellers organize and demand development from the state? The politics of urban slums has primarily been examined through the lens of clientelism. In contrast, associational activity has gone relatively understudied in these spaces, reserved instead as a focus of inquiry for middle-class neighborhoods. Drawing on twenty months of fieldwork and an original survey of 1,925 residents across 80 settlements in the north Indian cities of Jaipur, Rajasthan and Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, I find that local associations are prevalent features of political life in India’s slums. These associations—colloquially referred to as katchi basti vikas samitiyaan, or slum development committees—afford residents a degree of organizational formality in otherwise informal spaces. They provide a medium for making individual and collective claims on the state. While patron–client networks do pervade slums, this study demonstrates that vertical ties co-exist with horizontal associations, producing a multi-dimensional space in which residents mitigate risk and demand development. 10. Title: Inequality and Charity Authors: Giuseppe Mastromatteo, Francesco Flaviano Russo. Abstract: We study empirically the relationship between inequality and active charity participation. Increased inequality can trigger feelings of empathy and compassion, thereby increasing altruism, and it can enhance the worm-glow feeling associated with giving. However inequality can also increase social distance and, therefore, social segregation, decreasing the participation to charities because of a weaker identification with the needy. Our empirical analysis features individual data on charity participation from the World Values Survey, merged with country-level information on inequality from the World Bank Development Indicators. We find that income inequality is positively associated with the probability to actively participate in charitable organizations, even after controlling for economic, sociological, demographics, cultural, and religious factors. We also find that women, religious people, and more educated individuals have a higher probability to actively participate in charities. Since charitable organizations mostly perform redistributive tasks, we also checked whether the generosity of the welfare state crowds out the participation in them, but we found no evidence of this relationship. 11. Title: Language, Mixed Communes, and Infrastructure: Sources of Inequality and Ethnic Minorities in Vietnam Authors: Hoa-Thi-Minh Nguyen, Tom Kompas, Trevor Breusch, Michael B. Ward. Abstract: This paper re-examines the sources of inequality in Vietnam, a transitional economy with large reductions in poverty from recent and dramatic economic growth, but vastly unequal gains across ethnic groups. Using a decomposition approach to disentangle factor endowments and returns by ethnic group, we draw four key conclusions. First, removing language barriers would significantly reduce inequality among ethnic groups, narrowing the ethnic gap, and especially so through enhancing the gains earned by minorities from education. Second, variations in returns to education exist in favor of the majority in mixed communes, suggesting that either the special needs of minority children have not been adequately addressed in the classroom, or unequal treatment in favor of the majority exists in the labor market. Third, in contrast to recent literature, there is no difference in the benefits drawn from enhanced infrastructure at the commune level across ethnic groups. Finally, we find little evidence to support the established views that the ethnic gap is attributed largely to differences in the returns to endowments. Overall, our research highlights the importance of considering language barriers and the availability of infrastructure for ethnic inequality. 12. Title: Comparing Health Outcomes across Scheduled Tribes and Castes in India Authors: Bipasha Maity Abstract: The Scheduled Tribes and Castes (STs and SCs) are the two most disadvantaged social groups in India. Previous studies have usually grouped the STs and SCs together as one disadvantaged group and have compared their educational and occupational mobility with the higher castes. We instead seek to compare health outcomes of the STs with not only the upper castes but also especially the SCs. We find that STs consistently perform poorly even relative to the SCs in terms of knowledge and usage of modern contraceptives, antenatal and postnatal healthcare, incidence of anemia and child immunization. However, female infant mortality is significantly higher among SCs than among STs, with no significant difference in male infant mortality between these groups. We find that ST women enjoy high social status and thus are unlikely to face impediments in accessing healthcare due to social norms that restrict women’s autonomy. Oaxaca–Blinder decomposition methodology reveals that the health disparity between the STs and SCs for some key outcomes cannot be fully explained by differences in attributes between them. Suggestive evidence indicates that the health disparity can be likely attributed to the potentially greater marginalization that STs face even relative to SCs when accessing healthcare. This indicates the necessity to study STs in isolation from SCs so that policy can be designed to specifically target and mitigate health inequalities prevalent even among the most disadvantaged social groups. 13. Title: Shared agency: The dominant spouse’s impact on education expenditure Authors: Antonia Fernandez, Uma S. Kambhampati. Abstract: In this paper, we consider whether it is the gender of the decision maker or the extent of agency that they wield that is crucial to increasing household welfare. This is an important question as development policy is often formed on the basis that placing resources in the hands of women results in greater household welfare. Indonesia provides the ideal opportunity to study this issue because it is home to ethnic groups with very different gender norms from male dominance (the patrilineal Batak) to female dominance (the matrilineal Minangkabau). Using IFLS data for three rounds, we consider the impact of decision-making by the dominant spouse on household expenditure on education. We find that, in Indonesia, when the dominant spouse (male or female) has sole control of decision-making, there is an overall negative impact on education expenditure. This leads us to argue that it is more important to consider the issue of spousal dominance, than to wholly focus on gender. 14. Title: Explaining Ethiopia’s Growth Acceleration—the Role of Infrastructure and Macroeconomic Policy Authors: Lars Christian Moller, Konstantin M. Wacker. Abstract: Ethiopia has experienced an impressive growth acceleration over the past decade. This was achieved on the back of an economic strategy emphasizing public infrastructure investment supported by heterodox macro-financial policies. This paper identifies the drivers of Ethiopia’s recent growth episode and examines the extent to which they were typical or unique. It combines country-specific information with the results of a cross-country panel regression model. We find that Ethiopia’s growth is explained well by factors correlating with growth in a broad range of countries in recent decades, including public infrastructure investment, restrained government consumption, and a conducive external environment. On the other hand, we argue that the policy mix that supported very high levels of public investment in Ethiopia was, to some extent, unique. Interestingly, macroeconomic imbalances due to this heterodox policy mix only moderately held back growth which helps explain why Ethiopia was able to grow so fast in spite of their presence: their negative effects were quantitatively much less important than the positive growth drivers they helped to achieve. The results suggest that “getting infrastructure right” may outweigh moderate shortcoming in the macro framework at early stages of development. We further relate this country-specific finding to the recent growth literature. 15. Title: Local Food Prices and International Price Transmission Authors: Eddy Bekkers, Martina Brockmeier, Joseph Francois, Fan Yang. Abstract: World food prices spiked in the periods 2007–8 and 2010–11. The impact of these spikes in world food prices on local food prices and thus on local consumers is determined by the food price pass through. Pass through is defined as the extent to which changes in world food prices lead to changes in local food prices. We examine the determinants of variation in food price pass through from global to local consumer prices in a global sample of 147 countries, using FAO data on world food prices and ILO data on food prices for consumers. While market integration matters, our study finds that income per capita is the dominant factor explaining cross-country variation in pass through of food prices. We estimate an elasticity of about "0.3 of pass through with respect to income per capita. This means far greater price transmission of food price shocks at the commodity level to final consumers in low-income countries than in high-income countries. The implication is that future swings in world food prices will in particular jeopardize food security in poor countries. Trade policy measures of market integration also affect the pass through significantly, whereas infrastructure and geography measures play no significant role. 16. Title: Happiness and Health in China: The Paradox of Progress Authors: Carol Graham, Shaojie Zhou, Junyi Zhang Abstract: Life satisfaction in China declined dramatically precisely at the time of its unprecedented economic growth and poverty reduction. We posit that a “progress paradox” is among the possible channels explaining these contrasting trends. Using data from the Chinese Livelihood Survey, we explore the role of reported physical and psychological health. The standard correlates of life satisfaction—such as age, income, and health—hold. In addition, we find that those with insufficient rest and leisure are significantly less satisfied. Urban, educated respondents are more likely to report depression, while rural and uneducated respondents are more satisfied with their lives and are less likely to report poor mental health. We also find that insufficient rest, stress, and low life satisfaction have a strong correlation with mental health problems. Given the gains in growth and poverty reduction in China, it is time to consider policies that focus on quality of life and mental illness. 17. Title: Raising Consumption through India’s National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme Authors: Nayana Bose Abstract: The Indian National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (NREGS) is one of the world's largest public works programs aimed at reducing poverty. NREGS guarantees up to a hundred days of employment in public works to rural households that demand work under the program. This is one of the first papers to analyze the impact of NREGS on household wellbeing by focusing on household consumption using national-level data. By focusing on consumption, I am able to assess whether and how household use the program to improve their living standards. I exploit the cross-district rollout of the program to analyze the causal effect on household consumption. Using the Consumption Expenditure Survey data from the National Sample Survey Organization, I conduct a difference-in-difference analysis where the treatment group consists of households in 184 early implementation districts and the control group consists of households in 209 late implementation districts. I find that the program significantly increased household per capita consumption between 6.5% and 10%. For the marginalized caste group, the program increased consumption by around 12%. Therefore, historical and ongoing discrimination along with other barriers to entry have not prevented this group from benefiting from the program. I further assess the impact on household budget allocation by focusing on various consumption categories. I find that households move toward the higher caloric and more nutritional items, like protein. Finally, for households with children there was significantly greater spending on “child goods” like milk, while in households without children spending on alcohol increased. 18. Title: Insurance Function of Livestock: Farmer’s Coping Capacity with Regional Droughts in South-Western Madagascar Authors: Hendrik Hänke, Jan Barkmann. Abstract: In semi-arid areas, pastoralism is attributed to an insurance function for smallholder farmers relying otherwise on rain-fed agriculture. In southwestern Madagascar, zebu cattle are the most prominent herded animal, and the heads a household owns is a strong indicator of both prestige and social status. Given the extreme socio-cultural value of zebu cattle in Malagasy culture, however, many authors question the economic rationale of zebu accumulation. Consequently, improved zebu herding has been widely ignored as a suitable target for development interventions. Empirical micro-level data on the role of livestock herding in terms of household economics is missing, though. With this contribution, we close this knowledge gap by analyzing the economic importance of zebu herding against (i) the general role of livestock husbandry and (ii) non-cattle-related livelihood and coping strategies to safeguard smallholders against crop failures.We conducted a longitudinal household and recall survey (n = 150 households, stratified random sampling, bi-weekly data acquisition) covering a year in which crop failure was widespread. Our study finds that households spent large shares of their total cash income on food purchases, whereas proceeds from the sale of livestock accounted for >56% of cash food expenditures. Remittances from out migrated household members were the 2nd most important income source. Similarly, the collection of wild foods and the reduction of food consumption were widespread coping strategies, as well as reliance on food aids from NGOs. The sale of zebu contributed a highly variable share to total income, depending on the livelihood strategy by households. However, while we can document an insurance function from zebu herding, small ruminants, i.e., goats and particularly sheep and chicken were more important for compensating food expenditures. Policy implications include a promotion of livestock diversification and poultry, systematic fodder forestation and improvements for the security of pastoralists in southern Madagascar. 19. Title: Sons of the Soil Conflict in Africa: Institutional Determinants of Ethnic Conflict Over Land Authors: Catherine Boone Abstract: Can the political science literature on sons-of-the-soil (SoS) conflict and civil war explain patterns of ethnic conflict over land in sub-Saharan Africa? Sons-of-the-soil terminology, developed with reference to conflicts in South Asia, has been used to describe some of Africa’s most violent or enduring conflicts, including those in eastern DRC, northern Uganda, the Casamance Region of Senegal, and southwestern Côte d'Ivoire. Is Africa becoming more like South Asia, where land scarcity has often fueled conflicts between indigenous land owners and in-migrants? This paper argues that political science theories that focus on rural migration and land scarcity alone to explain outbreaks of SoS conflict in Asia fall short in Africa because they are underdetermining. The paper proposes a model of structure and variation in land tenure institutions in sub-Saharan Africa, and argues that these factors are critical in explaining the presence of absence of SoS conflict over land. This conceptualization of the problem highlights the strong role of the state in structuring relations of land use and access, and suggests that the character of local state-backed land institutions goes far in accounting for the presence or absence, scale, location, and triggering of large-scale SoS land conflict in zones of smallholder agriculture. A meta-study of 24 subnational cases of land conflict (1990–2014), drawn from secondary and primary sources and field observations, generates case-based support for the argument. The study suggests that omission of land-tenure institution variables enfeebles earlier political science theory, and may inadvertently lead policy makers and practitioners to the erroneous conclusion that in rural Africa, primordial groups compete for land in an anarchic state of nature. 20. Title: Decoupling Standards from Practice: The Impact of In-House Certifications on Coffee Farms’ Environmental and Social Conduct Authors: Elisa Giuliani, Luciano Ciravegna, Andrea Vezzulli, Bernard Kilian. Abstract: In this paper we investigate whether coffee farms that have been granted in-house socio-environmental certification from a global buyer, display better social and environmental conduct compared to non-certified farms. We perform an econometric analysis using data from an original cross-country survey covering 575 farms in various regions of Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, Guatemala, and Mexico. We find that farms that have been granted in-house certification demonstrate better environmental but not better social conduct than non-certified farms. We find also that the positive relationship between in-house certification and environmental conduct is stronger if the farm sells to a cooperative, and if it is located in an institutionally weak country. Finally, we find that the institutional strength of the farm's home country has a positive influence on its social conduct. We discuss how our analysis contributes to the literature on the social and environmental impacts of certifications, and to scholarship in global value chains’ social and environmental upgrading. 21. Title: Community Forest Management: An Assessment and Explanation of its Performance Through QCA Authors: Bas Arts, Jessica de Koning. Abstract: Community Forest Management (CFM)—ranging from community-based to co-management regimes—has become an influential approach in the management of forests around the world in the last couple of decades. In response to some of the adverse effects of state forestry and commercial timber production, CFM claims to improve local livelihoods and conserve forests. Many international organizations, donors, NGOs, and governments therefore advocate CFM. However, a vast body of literature reveals that the overall results are mixed. This paper contributes to this literature in two ways. By building upon neo-institutionalism in CFM studies, the paper uses a practice-based approach as a theoretical lens to better understand how and why CFM institutions are successful or not. In addition, the paper applies a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) methodology to conduct a systematic cross-case comparison, while allowing for some generalization. By analyzing a decade of CFM research at the Forest and Nature Conservation Policy (FNP) group from Wageningen University in the Netherlands, this paper compares and synthesizes ten CFM cases from Africa, Asia, and Latin America. It concludes that: (1) CFM does indeed present mixed results; (2) CFM performs similarly on social and ecological parameters; (3) overall, community-based organizations are strongly engaged in CFM; (4) such strong engagement though is not sufficient for CFM to perform; and (5) in particular, the presence of a “Community of Practice” that links local people to external forest professionals for mutual learning, based on respect and trust, makes a positive difference in terms of livelihoods and forest conditions. 22. Title: Blending Top-Down Federalism with Bottom-Up Engagement to Reduce Inequality in Ethiopia Authors: Qaiser Khan, Jean-Paul Faguet, Alemayehu Ambel. Abstract: Donors increasingly fund interventions to counteract inequality in developing countries, where they fear it can foment instability and undermine nation-building efforts. To succeed, aid relies on the principle of upward accountability to donors. But federalism shifts the accountability of subnational officials downward to regional and local voters. What happens when aid agencies fund anti-inequality programs in federal countries? Does federalism undermine aid? Does aid undermine federalism? Or can the political and fiscal relations that define a federal system resolve the contradiction internally? We explore this paradox via the Promotion of Basic Services program in Ethiopia, the largest donor-financed investment program in the world. Using an original panel database comprising the universe of Ethiopian woredas (districts), the study finds that horizontal (geographic) inequality decreased substantially. Donor-financed block grants to woredas increased the availability of primary education and health care services in the bottom 20% of woredas. Weaker evidence from household surveys suggests that vertical inequality across wealth groups (within woredas) also declined, implying that individuals from the poorest households benefit disproportionately from increasing access to, and utilization of, such services. The evidence suggests that by combining strong upward accountability over public investment with enhanced citizen engagement on local issues, Ethiopia’s federal system resolves the instrumental dissonance posed by aid-funded programs to combat inequality in a federation. 23. Title: Participatory Budgeting and the Poor: Tracing Bias in a Multi-Staged Process in Solo, Indonesia Authors: Tara Grillos Abstract: This paper examines a participatory budgeting process in the city of Surakarta (Solo), Indonesia. Using newly digitized records of the infrastructure spending results from three distinct phases of the process (proposal, prioritization, and implementation), I assess the degree to which the resulting geographical distribution of spending allocations targets the poor. I find a poverty-related bias in the distribution of infrastructure projects funded by the program. While results vary across neighborhoods, on average, sub-units with more poor people receive a smaller percentage of funding than would correspond to their share of the general population. Furthermore, although the implementation stage exhibits significant divergence from the decisions made during the more public proposal and prioritization processes, the small group of elected officials in charge of implementation are not to blame for the bias. I find no evidence that deviations from decisions made during public meetings are based on something other than legitimate technical considerations. Instead, the bias originates in the proposal stage, with the poorest sub-units less likely to submit proposals in the first place. I conclude that the literature would benefit from more studies that look at differences across stages of decision-making within a particular process. Whereas contextual differences across settings may be difficult to change over the short-run, identifying procedural differences and points of vulnerability across a single process can help to diagnose problems which have the potential to actually be resolved by policy-makers. 24. Title: The Effectiveness of Payments for Environmental Services Authors: Jan Börner, Kathy Baylis, Esteve Corbera, Driss Ezzine-de-Blas, Jordi Honey-Rosés, U. Martin Persson, Sven Wunder. Abstract: We adopt a theory-based approach to synthesize research on the effectiveness of payments for environmental services in achieving environmental objectives and socio-economic co-benefits in varying contexts. Our theory of change builds on established conceptual models of impact pathways and highlights the role of (1) contextual dimensions (e.g., political, institutional, and socio-economic conditions, spatial heterogeneity in environmental service values and provision costs, and interactions with pre-existing policies), and (2) scheme design (e.g., payment type and level, contract length, targeting, and differentiation of payments) in determining environmental and socio-economic outcomes. To shed light on the overall effectiveness of payment schemes, and its determinants, we review counterfactual-based empirical evaluations, comparative analyses of case-studies, and meta-analyses. Our review suggests that program effectiveness often lags behind the expectations of early theorists. However, we also find that theory has advanced sufficiently to identify common reasons for why payment schemes fail or succeed. Moreover, payment schemes are often rolled out along with other policy instruments in so-called policy mixes. Advances in theory and evaluation research are needed to improve our understanding of how such policy mixes interact with the targeted social-ecological systems. 25. Title: Bilateral Donors and the Age of the National Interest: What Prospects for Challenge by Development Agencies? Authors: Nilima Gulrajani Abstract: Foreign aid agencies represent and champion global development priorities within a donor nation. Increasingly however, these agencies sit within donor governments that are strongly committed to upholding the national interest through their development commitments. This paper is concerned with how bilateral aid agencies manage this tension and how they might continue to serve the altruistic aims of development. The main research question asks if autonomy—or a combination of autonomies—can improve a development agency’s ability to defend the humanitarian imperative of development against normative pressures privileging the national interest? By drawing on theories of autonomy within public management literatures, it is possible to identify points of leverage for development agencies where spaces for autonomous preferences and actions remain, as well as sources of limitation where such opportunities are considerably reduced. Six types of autonomy are examined across three nations widely perceived as strong performers as donors—Norway, the UK, and Sweden. The paper suggests that while structural autonomy is critical for preserving humanitarian motivations, there are also unexplored opportunities within other autonomous spheres. A multi-dimensional examination of autonomy highlights the varying capacity that development agencies have to resist pressures to strongly nationalize the global development project. 26. Title: Can Gender-Targeted Employment Interventions Help Enhance Community Participation? Evidence from Urban Togo Authors: Anita Breuer, Edward Asiedu. Abstract: The Participatory Development (PD) approach aims at improving the quality of governance by empowering local populations. Particularly for Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), PD is regarded an opportunity to help shift from unjustified centralization to more decentralized forms of governance. Yet, PD projects are frequently fraught with undesired effects of elite capture which critics ascribe to insufficient appreciation of local context. Our study adopts a sequential quantitative–qualitative mixed method approach to broaden the empirical foundation needed for context sensitive project design. By exploring the effects of gender and employment on community participation we contribute to narrowing two research gaps: First, political science research on female participation in SSA has mostly focused on participation in national-level processes. Second, while development economics literature has devoted much attention on effects of female employment on intra-household bargaining, it has so far omitted the question what this means for the empowerment of women beyond the household, that is in the public life of their communities. Analyzing original survey data of over 1,300 respondents, collected across four urban municipalities in Togo, we find that unemployment negatively impacts community participation. Specifically, we show that this effect is mainly driven by female unemployment and establish self-efficacy driven by norm perception as the causal link between female employment and participation. Complementing our quantitative findings with data from 98 qualitative interviews, we show that employment constitutes an important psychological resource that enables women to overcome multiple discrimination barriers to community participation. However, this effect is stronger for women in a formal employment situation than for those working in less formalized settings. We conclude that gender-targeted employment interventions can help to increase community participation. We recommend that such efforts should not fixate on the creation of female job opportunities but also seek to strengthen the role of female informal workers in local political processes. 27. Title: The Effects of Natural Resources on Urbanization, Concentration, and Living Standards in Africa Authors: Christian Hubert Ebeke, Sabine Mireille Ntsama Etoundi. Abstract: This paper examines the effects of natural resource abundance on urbanization and living standards in Africa. Our central hypothesis is that the exploitation of natural resources in a context of poor governance quality creates the conditions for rapid urbanization and urban concentration, and ultimately lowers living standards in primal cities. Using a large panel of African countries, our results show that an increase in the share of natural resources leads to a rapid increase in urbanization and urban concentration, even after taking into account endogeneity issues, or after using more exogenous measures of resource dependency. The paper also establishes a negative association between the resource abundance, the quality of life in large cities and the degree of informality via the increase in urbanization rate and urban concentration. Importantly, we have established that these results mostly hold in the context of bad governance. More specifically, the resource-led urbanization and concentration booms take place mainly in countries characterized by poor governance records. Furthermore, poor governance quality is associated with a more detrimental effect of urbanization and urban concentration on the quality of life in African cities. These results suggest that ongoing transformations experienced by these countries call for complementary policies to ensure a more balanced and efficient urbanization process. 28. Title: Toward Technology-Sensitive Catching-Up Policies: Insights from Renewable Energy in China Authors: Christian Binz, Jorrit Gosens, Teis Hansen, Ulrich Elmer Hansen. Abstract: The voluminous literature on industrial catching-up in Southeast Asian countries has regularly argued that successful catching-up largely depended on a committed state, which orchestrated industry development with a relatively uniform set of policies, including R&D support, subsidies, trade restrictions, and local content requirements. In contrast, recent contributions from the technology lifecycle literature have argued that policies should be tailored to differing technological characteristics in industries for mass-produced standardized goods, complex engineered products, and—as we argue—complex product systems (CoPS). In this paper, we extend this argument by introducing a set of separate policy mixes for each industry type, which appears most capable of providing the key resources required for catching-up: knowledge, market access, financial investment and technology legitimacy. This framework is used to analyze catching-up patterns in China’s wind, solar PV, and biomass power plant industries, drawing mainly on policy documents and 106 interviews with key industry actors. We find that traditional top-down catching-up policies played a decisive role in the development of China’s wind industry, but were of limited importance in the early solar PV industry, and resulted only in a limited period of rapid growth in the biomass power plant industry. The relative progress achieved in these three industries is not related to top-down policy guidance alone, but also to private sector initiative, international interdependencies, and flexibility in adapting policy mixes to each industry’s technological characteristics. These results suggest that policy makers in newly industrializing countries (NICs) should avoid drafting generic sector plans, but should tailor plans to individual industries, and respond to changing policy support needs as technological capacities and global competitiveness develop. 29. Title: International Migration, Workers’ Remittances and Permanent Income Hypothesis Authors: Sokchea Lim, Hem C. Basnet. Abstract: Studies that examine the long-run impact of remittances on economic growth in West Africa and the Caribbean show that remittances are not growth enhancing. Money has been used toward consumption rather than investment. Because migrants from these regions are mostly permanent immigrants who settle in the host countries, we ask if there is a difference for South Asia where migrant workers are flooding for short-term, temporary contracts in the Middle Eastern countries. The permanent income hypothesis states that a permanent increase in income raises current consumption while transitory income increase is saved or smoothed over a life time. We argue that the transitory income remitted by short-term migrants is invested to generate future income when they return. We examine a panel data of five South Asian countries—Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri-Lanka—for a period from 1975 to 2011. Using panel cointegration and Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation of dynamic heterogeneous panels, we show that there is a long-run significant impact of workers' remittances on income while the impact on consumption is not significant. A one-percent increase in remittance receipt per person raises per-capita income by approximately 0.23%. The results are robust across different tests. 30. Title: The Impact of a Computer-based Adult Literacy Program on Literacy and Numeracy: Evidence from India Authors: Ashwini Deshpande, Alain Desrochers, Christopher Ksoll, Abu S. Shonchoy. Abstract: With over 700 million illiterate adults worldwide, governments in many developing countries have implemented adult literacy programs. Typically these programs have low rates of success partly because the quality of teaching is heterogeneous. Standardization of teaching provided by computer-aided instruction might be a solution. However, there is little rigorous evidence of the effectiveness of computer-based adult literacy programs in delivering high-quality literacy and numeracy in the developing world. To fill this void in the literature, we study the impact of a computer-based adult literacy program, Tara Akshar Plus, on the literacy and numeracy skills of previously illiterate adult women in the north Indian state of Uttar Pradesh. Through a randomized control trial, we measure learning outcomes with individual-level literacy and numeracy tests and find statistically significant positive impacts of this computer-aided program on literacy and numeracy outcomes of women who undergo the TARA Akshar Plus program—relative to the control group. The effects are statistically significant but small in magnitude for women who were entirely illiterate prior to the program. The learning impacts are substantially larger for learners who knew at least a handful of letters at the beginning of the program. We compare the improvement in learning to that of another adult literacy and numeracy program. We conclude that TARA Akshar Plus is the more effective of the two, but the literacy and numeracy level achieved are not large enough to make many entirely illiterate learners become functionally literate. 31. Title: Growing-up Unfortunate: War and Human Capital in Ethiopia Authors: Samuel G. Weldeegzie Abstract: It is well-documented that early-life outcomes can have lasting impacts during adulthood. This paper investigates two of the main potential channels—childhood health and schooling outcomes—through which the Eritrean–Ethiopian war may have long-term economic impacts. Using unique child-level panel data from Ethiopia, identification is based on a difference-in-difference approach, using two points in time at which older and younger children have the same average age and controlling for observable household and child-level time-variant characteristics. The paper contributes to an empirical literature that relies predominantly on cross-sectional comparisons of child cohorts born before and after the war in war-affected and unaffected regions. The results show that war-exposed children have a one-third of a standard deviation lower height-for-age z-score and a 12-percentage point higher incidence of childhood stunting. In addition, exposed children are less likely to be enrolled in school, complete fewer grades (given enrollment), and are more likely to exhibit reading problems (given enrollment). While analyzing the exact mechanisms is challenging, suggestive evidence indicates that child health reduces child education, in particular the probability of child enrollment at school. These are disconcerting findings, as early-life outcomes can have lasting impacts during adulthood. Future research that focuses on mechanisms through which war affects children may improve the design of appropriate policies that aim to target and support children confronted with war. 32. Title: The ENSO Effect and Asymmetries in Wheat Price Dynamics Authors: David Ubilava Abstract: Climate has historically played a critical role in the development of nations, primarily due to its intrinsic linkage with agricultural production and prices. This study examines one such relationship between the better known and most talked about climate anomaly, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the international prices of wheat, one of the most produced and consumed grain cereals in the world. The ENSO–price relationship, moreover, is assumed to be characterized by nonlinear dynamics, because of the known asymmetric nature of ENSO cycles, as well as that of wheat prices. This study applies a vector smooth transition autoregressive (VSTAR) modeling framework to monthly spot prices of wheat from the United States, the European Union, Australia, Canada, and Argentina, as well as the sea surface temperature anomalies from the Nino3.4 region, which serves as a proxy for the ENSO variable. Results show that, overall, wheat prices tend to increase after La Niña events, and decrease after El Niño events. The regime-dependent dynamics are apparent with more amplified price responses after La Niña shocks, and with more persistent price responses during the La Niña conditions. This is consistent with the economics of storage, wherein shocks related to expected supply and demand are known to have a more pronounced effect in a low-inventory regime. Findings of this study have strong implications for development economics, as they point to an additional channel of adversity due to the ENSO-related climate shocks. Moreover, the ENSO-induced price fluctuations are likely to affect the dynamics of international food and cash programs during extreme episodes of this climate anomaly. 33. Title: Economic Institutions and Comparative Economic Development: A Post-Colonial Perspective Authors: Daniel L. Bennett, Hugo J. Faria, James D. Gwartney, Daniel R. Morales. Abstract: Existing literature suggests that either colonial settlement conditions or the identity of colonizer were influential in shaping the post-colonial institutional environment, which in turn has impacted long-run economic development. These two potential identification strategies have been treated as substitutes. We argue that the two factors should instead be treated as complementary and develop an alternative and unified IV approach that simultaneously accounts for both settlement conditions and colonizer identity to estimate the potential causal impact of a broad cluster of economic institutions on log real GDP per capita for a sample of former colonies. Using population density in 1500 as a proxy for settlement conditions, we find that the impact of settlement conditions on institutional development is much stronger among former British colonies than colonies of the other major European colonizers. Conditioning on several geographic factors and ethno-linguistic fractionalization, our baseline 2SLS estimates suggest that a standard deviation increase in economic institutions is associated with a three-fourth standard deviation increase in economic development. Our results are robust to a number of additional control variables, country subsample exclusions, and alternative measures of institutions, GDP, and colonizer classifications. We also find evidence that geography exerts both an indirect and direct effect on economic development. 34. Title: Evidence from Lagos on Discrimination across Ethnic and Class Identities in Informal Trade Authors: Shelby Grossman, Dan Honig. Abstract: This paper investigates the determinants of price discrimination in the rice market in one neighborhood of Lagos, Nigeria. There has been little empirical study of how ethnicity and class shape economic outcomes in informal market interactions. We conduct an audit experiment—one of the first audit experiments in Africa—seeking to address this gap. We experimentally manipulate class, with confederates presenting as different classes; this may be the first audit study to take this approach. This is also one of the first in-person audits to have multiple transactions for each buyer and seller, thus allowing for the use of buyer and seller fixed effects. We find little evidence that, all else equal, sharing an ethnicity on its own influences market treatment. Class, however, does have substantial effects, at least for non-coethnics. High-class non-coethnics receive higher prices per unit than low-class non-coethnics. Our findings suggest that the boundaries of group identity appear to be at least partially defined by class in the informal economy. 35. Title: Are “New” Donors Challenging World Bank Conditionality? Authors: Diego Hernandez Abstract: This paper investigates whether World Bank conditionality is affected by the presence of “new” donors by using panel data for 54 African countries over the 1980–2013 period. Empirical results indicate that the World Bank delivers loans with significantly fewer conditions to recipient countries which are assisted by China. In fact these receive 15% fewer conditions for every percentage-point increase in Chinese aid. Less stringent conditionality is also observed in better off borrowers that are in addition funded by Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates, but this effect vanishes after the start of the new millennium. In contrast, World Bank conditionality is rarely affected by aid inflows from DAC donors, and when it is, conditionality is revised upward. These findings suggest that new donors might be perceived as an attractive financial option to which the World Bank reacts by offering credits less restrictively in order to remain competitive in the loan-giving market and thereby cope with excesses in the supply of development resources. 36. Title: The Political Economy of Primary Education: Lessons from Rwanda Authors: Timothy P. Williams Abstract: When it comes to the state’s ability to deliver services to the poor, politics matter. This paper applies a political settlements framework to examine primary education quality in Rwanda. Formal education features prominently into the post-genocide government’s social and economic development project. Rwanda’s political elite have staked their claim in the development of the country, one which is relatively free from rent-seeking. But education quality remains surprisingly low. Enrollment has surged, but primary school dropout and repetition are high. Most children have not acquired age-appropriate literacy or numeracy skills. We sought to investigate why the education sector hasn’t done better in terms of improving quality than we might have expected. This paper draws from interviews and literature review to investigate how policy development and implementation shape the provision of quality education. Our study finds that education priorities were as much political as they were developmental. A lack of real opposition or pushback enabled the government to introduce profoundly transformative educational policies, such as switching the language of instruction from French to English. Often these decisions occurred outside the sector’s strategic planning processes. Performance-based incentives tended to focus on aspects of quality that are measurable, such as the construction of classrooms, rather than improving the capacity of the teaching workforce. We did not find evidence of an effective, sustained strategy to improve education quality. It is thus debatable to what extent Rwanda’s approach can be considered as inclusive development when quality for most children remains so low. This study makes an empirical contribution through evaluating how the education sector has been situated within Rwanda’s broader political settlement, what kinds of outcomes it has led to, and why. It also makes a theoretical contribution by understanding the nature of the relationship between the national political settlement and the education sector. 37. Title: Do Economic Problems at Home Undermine Worker Safety Abroad?: A Panel Study, 1980–2009 Authors: Sijeong Lim, Aseem Prakash. Abstract: Do economic downturns in the Global North undermine worker safety in the Global South? Literature suggests that bilateral trade linkages lead to the diffusion of “good” labor standards from importing countries of the Global North to exporting countries of the Global South. The crucial mechanism is the ability and willingness of importing firms to deploy their market leverage and ask for improved labor standards from their overseas suppliers. Yet, cost-cutting pressures emanating from economic downturns might lead the same importing firms to give lower priority to worker safety in their overseas supply chains. When importing firms demand price reductions, overseas suppliers might respond by reducing wages, ignoring safety regulations, and working their labor force for longer hours. The observable implication is that worker safety in the Global South may deteriorate during economic downturns in their export markets located in the Global North. We evaluate our hypothesis using a panel of 83 developing countries for the period during 1980–2009, and find that economic downturns in developed country markets are associated with significant increases in non-fatal occupational injury rates in developing countries. The injury-increasing effect is more pronounced in developing countries with weak workers' rights protection. 38. Title: Comparative Advantage in Demand and the Development of Rice Value Chains in West Africa Authors: Matty Demont, Rose Fiamohe, A. Thierry Kinkpé. Abstract: National rice development strategies in Africa are often supply-focused and implicitly assume that consumers will readily substitute imported for domestic rice. However, due to increasing import dependency, urban consumer preferences for rice have become biased toward Asian export quality standards, against which African rice has difficulties to compete. Anecdotal evidence suggests that this import bias is higher in cities close to the port and remote from the geographical centers of cultural heritage where African rice was domesticated more than 3,000 years ago. We purposely select a sample of five West African urban markets which are supplied by both foreign and domestic rice value chains and which are located at varying distances from the nearest ports and centers of cultural heritage, and conduct framed field experiments based on auctions to analyze the drivers of urban demand for domestic rice with upgraded quality characteristics. We find that West African rice has increasing difficulties competing against imported rice on urban markets the more consumers appreciate characteristics of imported Asian rice, the closer to the port, and the further the geographical and genealogical distance from rice cultural heritage. These challenges provide crucial insights into value chain upgrading in policy makers’ struggle to achieve rice self-sufficiency in West Africa. Our findings suggest that the optimal portfolio of investment in value chain upgrading is a function of the targeted end-market and its distance from the port and rice cultural heritage. The closer the end-market is located toward the port, the more investment is needed in lifting demand of domestic rice through quality upgrading, branding, and promotion to enable it to compete against imported rice. Proximity to centers of cultural heritage, on the other hand, endows rice value chains with a “comparative advantage in demand,” requiring less investment in demand-lifting and leaving more room for supply-shifting investments. 39. Title: The Impact of Regional and Institutional Factors on Labor Productive Performance—Evidence from the Township and Village Enterprise Sector in China Authors: Lucy Zheng, Michael Enowbi Batuo, David Shepherd. Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of regional and institutional factors on labor productivity in China’s Township and Village Enterprise (TVE) sector, one of the pillar industries of the economy. Employing a balanced provincial panel dataset, we find a significant variation in the factors determining regional labor productivity between the three macro-regions. The factors of capital investment intensity, foreign intensity, and export intensity behave differently with a significant regional diversity. 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