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The American Economic Review Volume 106, Issue 5, May 2016 1. Title: Restoring Rational Choice: The Challenge of Consumer Financial Regulation Authors: Campbell, John Y. Abstract: This lecture considers the case for consumer financial regulation in an environment where many households lack the knowledge to manage their financial affairs effectively. The lecture argues that financial ignorance is pervasive and unsurprising given the complexity of modern financial products, and that it contributes meaningfully to the evolution of wealth inequality. The lecture uses a stylized model to discuss the welfare economics of paternalistic intervention in financial markets, and discusses several specific examples including asset allocation in retirement savings, fees for unsecured short-term borrowing, and reverse mortgages. 2. Title: The Phillips Curve: Back to the '60s? Authors: Blanchard, Olivier. Abstract: This paper reexamines the behavior of inflation and unemployment and reaches four conclusions: 1) The U.S. Phillips curve is alive and well (at least as well as in the past). 2) Inflation expectations however have become steadily more anchored. 3) The slope of the curve has substantially declined. But the decline dates back to the 1980s rather than to the crisis. 4) The standard error of the residual in the relation is large, especially in comparison to the low level of inflation. Each of the four conclusions presents challenges for the conduct of monetary policy. 3. Title: Dealing with Long-Term Deficits Authors: Feldstein, Martin. Abstract: The United States faces a rising future ratio of debt to GDP that, if allowed to continue, would have serious adverse consequences for the American economy. Fortunately, policy changes can increase the size of the future GDP and shrink the future budget deficits. Relatively small reductions in future annual deficits could reverse the increasing ratio of national debt to GDP. Those annual deficit reductions could be best achieved by slowing the growth of Social Security and Medicare and by raising revenue by limiting tax expenditures or increasing the tax on gasoline. 4. Title: Monetary Policy, Financial Stability, and the Zero Lower Bound. Authors: Fischer, Stanley. Abstract: Much has happened in the world of central banking in the past decade. In this paper, I focus on three issues associated with the zero lower bound (ZLB) on short-term nominal interest rates and the nexus between monetary policy and financial stability: 1) whether we are moving toward a permanently lower long-run equilibrium real interest rate; 2) what steps can be taken to mitigate the constraints imposed by the ZLB; and 3) whether and how financial stability considerations should be incorporated in the conduct of monetary policy. These important topics deserve the attention of both academic and government professionals. 5. Title: How to Restore Equitable and Sustainable Economic Growth in the United States Authors: Stiglitz, Joseph E. Abstract: Today's weakness in the US economy results from lack of aggregate demand, due to high and growing inequality, underinvestment in public infrastructure and technology that is complementary to private capital, continuing mild austerity, difficulties encountered in making the structural transformation from manufacturing to a service-based economy, and a financial sector failing to provide adequate funds to SMEs. An agenda to restore growth includes a carbon price, inducing climate investments; increased public investments in infrastructure and technology; fighting inequality through redistribution and rewriting the rules structuring the economy; and reforming the financial sector and the global reserve system. 6. Title: Can We Restart the Recovery All Over Again? Authors: Taylor, John B. Abstract: Many have argued that a deviation from good economic policy has been a cause of the poor U.S. economic performance of the past decade and that policy reforms are needed to restore strong growth. Yet others argue that the recent stagnation is secular or that the possibility of a rapid recovery is long gone without more fiscal stimulus. Here I show that unusual economic conditions leave plenty of room for a reform-induced rebound. Taking demographics and the growth of capital services into account, labor force participation and productivity growth are unusually low. Hence, policy reforms could generate a post-recession-like acceleration as well as sustained growth and stability. 7. Title: A Century of Growth and Improvement Authors: Friedman, Benjamin M. Abstract: The fact that actual economic advance over time normally means producing and consuming different things is usually left implicit in modern models of economic growth. By contrast, qualitative change--new goods and services, and better versions of what already existed--is central to Robert Gordon's history of the improvement of American living standards since 1870. A major contribution of his fine-grained account of this experience is to make clear what this improvement has meant, and why it has mattered to ordinary citizens. 8. Title: The Rise and Fall of American Growth: Exploring the Numbers Authors: Crafts, Nicholas. Abstract: This paper reviews some of the major claims in Robert Gordon's Rise and Fall of American Growth. His argument that growth of conventional real GDP per person is well below that of real living standards is accepted. It is shown that adding an imputation to GDP for reductions in mortality raises growth substantially, especially between 1929 and 1950. Gordon is also right that total factor productivity growth peaked in the second and third quarters of the twentieth century but his claim that there was a 'great leap forward' in the 1940s, stimulated by World War 2, is not persuasive. 9. Title: State Capacity and American Technology: Evidence from the Nineteenth Century Authors: Acemoglu, Daron; Moscona, Jacob; Robinson, James A. Abstract: Robert Gordon's The Rise and Fall of American Economic Growth compellingly shows how technical innovation, stimulated by the country's institutions, has radically improved the living standards of the citizens of the US. We conduct an empirical investigation of the impact of the capacity of the US state, as proxied by the presence of post offices, on innovation. We show that there is a strong association between the number of post offices in a county and patenting activity. Our evidence suggests that part of story of US innovation is the capacity and reach of the US state. 10. Title: Winter Is Coming: Robert Gordon and the Future of Economic Growth Authors: Clark, Gregory. Abstract: This comment assesses the claim of The Rise and Fall of American Growth that for coming decades, growth in US TFP will continue the disappointing pace of the last decade. While predicting future technological advance is difficult, there are indications that Gordon may actually be too optimistic on future TFP growth. The share of output from manufacturing, which still generates the majority of R&D expenditures, and has historically more rapid TFP growth, will continue to fall. There are substantial obstacles to rapid TFP advance in much of the rest of the economy: construction, transport, health care and other services. 11. Title: Perspectives on the Rise and Fall of American Growth Authors: Gordon, Robert J. Abstract: This paper summarizes the book and assesses the reviews contained in the four contributed papers. Gregory Clark provides convincing arguments that extend the book's forecast that future technological change will be slower. Nicholas Crafts shows declining mortality and shorter work hours greatly increase welfare-augmented TFP growth during 1929-50. Benjamin Friedman points out that optimism about future technological change casts doubt on future employment growth, while technological pessimism implies employment optimism. Daron Acemoglu and co-authors emphasize the institutional environment that influences the timing and magnitude of innovation. 12. Title: Infrastructure, Incentives, and Institutions Authors: Ashraf, Nava; Glaeser, Edward L.; Ponzetto, Giacomo A. M. Abstract: Expensive infrastructure is ineffective if it doesn't travel the last mile. In nineteenth-century New York and modern Africa, disease has spread when urbanites chose not to use newly built sanitation infrastructure to save money. Either subsidies or Pigouvian fines can internalize the externalities that occur when people don't use sanitation infrastructure, but with weak institutions subsidies generate waste and fines lead to extortion. Our model illustrates the complementarity between infrastructure and institutions and shows how institutional weaknesses determine whether fines, subsidies, both or neither are optimal. Contrary to Becker (1968), the optimal fine is often mild to reduce extortion. 13. Title: Guns, Latrines, and Land Reform: Dynamic Pigouvian Taxation Authors: Kremer, Michael; Willis, Jack. Abstract: Dynamically and statically optimal Pigouvian subsidies and taxes on durables will differ in a growing economy. In a dynamic game, consumers may delay purchasing durables with positive externalities, such as latrines, anticipating greater future subsidies. Governments can most cheaply induce optimal purchasing by commiting to make subsidies temporary. Foreign donors may make commitment impossible, generating delays in private investment that more than fully offset the social benefits of transfers. Anticipated future taxes or regulation of durables with negative externalities, such as guns, may encourage current purchase, potentially causing policymakers who would otherwise prefer taxes or regulation to abandon such policies. 14. Title: Appliance Ownership and Aspirations among Electric Grid and Home Solar Households in Rural Kenya Authors: Lee, Kenneth; Miguel, Edward; Wolfram, Catherine. Abstract: In Sub-Saharan Africa, there are active debates about whether increases in energy access should be driven by investments in electric grid infrastructure or small-scale 'home solar' systems (e.g., solar lanterns and solar home systems). We summarize the results of a household electrical appliance survey and describe how households in rural Kenya differ in terms of appliance ownership and aspirations. Our data suggest that home solar is not a substitute for grid power. Furthermore, the environmental advantages of home solar are likely to be relatively small in countries like Kenya, where grid power is primarily derived from non-fossil fuel sources. 15. Title: Firm-Level Dispersion in Productivity: Is the Devil in the Details? Authors: Foster, Lucia; Grim, Cheryl; Haltiwanger, John; Wolf, Zoltan. Abstract: We explore current interpretations of firm-level dispersion in revenue-based productivity measures. Since revenue function estimates using proxy methods differ from factor elasticities, the residual emerging from this method remains a combination of demand and technical effciency shocks, and is not equal to the concept of revenue productivity that plays an important role in recent literature on misallocation. This has implications for applications where measured revenue productivity dispersion is used as an indicator of misallocation. Our empirical evidence suggests, under iso-elastic demand, measured dispersion may indicate either distortions or variation in demand shocks and technical effciency or all of the above. 16. Title: Productivity Dispersion in Medicine and Manufacturing Authors: Chandra, Amitabh; Finkelstein, Amy; Sacarny, Adam; Syverson, Chad. Abstract: The conventional wisdom in health economics is that large differences in average productivity across US hospitals are the result of idiosyncratic features of the healthcare sector which dull the role of market forces. Strikingly, however, we find that productivity dispersion in heart attack treatment across hospitals is, if anything, smaller than in narrowly defined manufacturing industries such as ready-mixed concrete. While this fact admits multiple interpretations, it suggests that healthcare may have more in common with 'traditional' sectors than is often assumed, and relatedly, that insights from research on productivity and allocation in other sectors may enrich analysis of healthcare. 17. Title: Market Regulations, Prices, and Productivity Authors: Cette, Gilbert; Lopez, Jimmy; Mairesse, Jacques. Abstract: This study is, to our knowledge, the first attempt to infer the consequences on productivity entailed by anticompetitive regulations in product and labor markets through their impacts on production prices and wages. Results show that changes in production prices and wages at country*industry levels are informative about the creation of rents impeding productivity in different ways and to different extents. A simulation based on OECD regulation indicators suggests that nearly all countries could expect sizeable gains in multifactor productivity from the implementation of large structural reform programs changing anticompetitive regulation practices on product and labor markets. 18. Title: Regulation, Institutions, and Productivity: New Macroeconomic Evidence from OECD Countries Authors: Égert, Balázs. Abstract: This paper seeks to understand the drivers of country-level multi-factor productivity (MFP) with a special emphasis on product and labour market policies and the quality of institutions. For a panel of OECD countries, we find that anticompetitive product market regulations reduce MFP levels and that higher innovation intensity and greater openness result in higher MFP. We also find that the impact of product market regulations on MFP may depend on the level of labour market regulations. Better institutions, a more business friendly environment and lower barriers to trade and investment amplify the positive impact of R&D spending on MFP. Finally, we also show that cross-country MFP variations can be explained to a considerable extent by cross-country variation in labour market regulations, barriers to trade and investment and institutions. 19. Title: Crowdsourcing City Government: Using Tournaments to Improve Inspection Accuracy Authors: Glaeser, Edward L.; Hillis, Andrew; Kominers, Scott Duke; Luca, Michael. Abstract: The proliferation of big data makes it possible to better target city services like hygiene inspections, but city governments rarely have the in-house talent needed for developing prediction algorithms. Cities could hire consultants, but a cheaper alternative is to crowdsource competence by making data public and offering a reward for the best algorithm. A simple model suggests that open tournaments dominate consulting contracts when cities can tolerate risk and when there is enough labor with low opportunity costs. We also report on an inexpensive Boston-based restaurant tournament, which yielded algorithms that proved reasonably accurate when tested 'out-of-sample' on hygiene inspections. 20. Title: Personalized Risk Assessments in the Criminal Justice System Authors: Goel, Sharad; Rao, Justin M.; Shroff, Ravi. Abstract: In an effort to bring greater efficiency, equity, and transparency to the criminal justice system, statistical risk assessment tools are increasingly used to inform bail, sentencing, and parole decisions. We examine New York City's stop-and-frisk program, and propose two new use cases for personalized risk assessments. First, we show that risk assessment tools can help police officers make considerably better real-time stop decisions. Second, we show that such tools can help audit past actions; in particular, we argue that a sizable fraction of police stops were conducted on the basis of little evidence, in possible violation of constitutional protections. 21. Title: Productivity and Selection of Human Capital with Machine Learning Authors: Chalfin, Aaron; Danieli, Oren; Hillis, Andrew; Jelveh, Zubin; Luca, Michael; Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil. Abstract: Economists have become increasingly interested in studying the nature of production functions in social policy applications, with the goal of improving productivity. Traditionally models have assumed workers are homogenous inputs. However, in practice, substantial variability in productivity means the marginal productivity of labor depends substantially on which new workers are hired--which requires not an estimate of a causal effect, but rather a prediction. We demonstrate that there can be large social welfare gains from using machine learning tools to predict worker productivity, using data from two important applications - police hiring and teacher tenure decisions. 22. Title: Cities Are Physical Too: Using Computer Vision to Measure the Quality and Impact of Urban Appearance Authors: Naik, Nikhil; Raskar, Ramesh; Hidalgo, César A. Abstract: For social scientists, developing an empirical connection between the physical appearance of a city and the behavior and health of its inhabitants has proved challenging due to a lack of data on urban appearance. Can we use computers to quantify urban appearance from street-level imagery? We describe Streetscore: a computer vision algorithm that measures the perceived safety of streetscapes. Using Streetscore to evaluate 19 American cities, we find that the average perceived safety has a strong positive correlation with population density and household income; and the variation in perceived safety has a strong positive correlation with income inequality. 23. Title: The Rapid Adoption of Data-Driven Decision-Making Authors: Brynjolfsson, Erik; McElheran, Kristina. Abstract: We provide a systematic empirical study of the diffusion and adoption patterns of data-driven decision making (DDD) in the U.S. Using data collected by the Census Bureau for a large representative sample of manufacturing plants, we find that DDD rates nearly tripled (11%-30%) between 2005 and 2010. This rapid diffusion, along with results from a companion paper, are consistent with case-based evidence that DDD tends to be productivity-enhancing. Yet certain plants are significantly more likely to adopt than others. Key correlates of adoption are size, presence of potential complements such as information technology and educated workers, and firm learning. 24. Title: Copyright Infringement in the Market for Digital Images Authors: Luo, Hong; Mortimer, Julie Holland. Abstract: Digital technologies for sharing creative goods create new opportunities for copyright infringement and challenge established enforcement methods. We establish several important facts about the nature of copyright infringement and efforts to settle past infringing use in the market for digital images. Infringement in this, and many other markets, is often uninformed: users may be unaware that their use infringes, and may lack information about the price of a license. The uninformed nature of infringement implies that price may not be the primary factor in the decision to settle past use; in contrast, non-price factors may significantly affect settlement outcomes. 25. Title: Agglomeration of Invention in the Bay Area: Not Just ICT Authors: Forman, Chris; Goldfarb, Avi; Greenstein, Shane. Abstract: We document that the Bay Area rose from 4% of all successful US patent applications in 1976 to 16% in 2008. This is partly driven by the increase in the prevalence of information and communication technology; however, even for patents unrelated to information and communication technology, we see a disproportionate increase in the share of US patents from the Bay Area. We interpret this growth as a trend to coagglomeration in invention across technologies, and explore different dimensions of this trend. 26. Title: International Data on Measuring Management Practices Authors: Bloom, Nicholas; Lemos, Renata; Sadun, Raffaella; Scur, Daniela; Van Reenen, John. Abstract: We examine methods used to survey firms on their management and organizational practices. We contrast the strengths and weaknesses of 'open ended questions' (like the World Management Survey) with 'closed questions' (like the MOPS). For this type of data, open ended questions give higher quality responses, but are more costly than closed question-based surveys. 27. Title: Making Private Data Accessible in an Opaque Industry: The Experience of the Private Capital Research Institute Authors: Jeng, Leslie; Lerner, Josh. Abstract: Private markets are becoming an increasingly important way of financing rapidly growing and mature firms, and private investors are reputed to have far-reaching economic impacts. These important markets, however, are uniquely difficult to study. This paper explores these challenges, as well as the ways they can be overcome, using the experiences of the Private Capital Research Institute as a case. 28. Title: Modernizing Federal Economic Statistics Authors: Bostic, William G.; Jarmin, Ron S.; Moyer, Brian. Abstract: Official statistical data on the structure, evolution and performance of the U.S. economy are produced by a variety federal, state and local agencies. Much of the methodology, policy frameworks and infrastructure for U.S. economic measurement have been in place for decades. There are growing concerns that the economy is evolving more rapidly than are the economic statistics we use to monitor it. We discuss both the challenges and opportunities to modernizing federal economic statistics. We describe an incremental approach that federal statistics agencies can follow to build a 21st century economic measurement system. 29. Title: Battling over Jobs: Occupational Licensing in Health Care Authors: Kleiner, Morris M. Abstract: The goal of this paper is to outline the major tensions between the monopoly face of licensing versus potential consumer protection goals of occupational regulation in the health care industry. Historically, health care occupations limited supply as a method of raising earnings, but with the growth in the number of newly regulated occupations, many professions have come in conflict over who gets to do the work. Rather than having consumers decide, state legislatures and licensing boards determine the allocation of tasks. The paper outlines policies that may allow consumers rather than service providers determine the direct allocation of these jobs. 30. Title: Should the US Eliminate Entry Barriers to the Practice of Law? Perspectives Shaped by Industry Deregulation Authors: Winston, Clifford; Karpilow, Quentin. Abstract: States' requirements that lawyers obtain a license to practice law, as well as American Bar Association (ABA) regulations of legal practice, constitute barriers to entry to the legal profession. In this paper, we argue that eliminating entry barriers in legal services would generate benefits that are similar to those resulting from deregulating U.S. network industries (i.e., transportation, communications, and energy.) Specifically, prices would fall as competition from incumbent firms and new entrants intensifies; in the long run, competitive forces and operating freedom would incentivize firms to produce innovations that significantly benefit consumers and the broader economy. 31. Title: Disruptive Change in the Taxi Business: The Case of Uber Authors: Cramer, Judd; Krueger, Alan B. Abstract: In most cities, the taxi industry is highly regulated and has restricted entry. Ride sharing services, such as Uber and Lyft, which use mobile internet technology to connect passengers and drivers, have begun to compete with traditional taxis. This paper examines the efficiency of ride sharing services vis-a-vis taxis. In most cities with data available, UberX drivers spend a significantly higher fraction of their time, and drive a substantially higher share of miles, with a passenger in their car than do taxi drivers. Reasons for this efficiency advantage are explored. 32. Title: Patents and Research Investments: Assessing the Empirical Evidence Authors: Budish, Eric; Roin, Benjamin N.; Williams, Heidi. Abstract: A well-developed theoretical literature--dating back at least to Nordhaus (1969)--has analyzed optimal patent policy design. We re-present the core trade-off of the Nordhaus model and highlight an empirical question which emerges from the Nordhaus framework as a key input into optimal patent policy design: namely, what is the elasticity of R&D investment with respect to the patent term? We then review the--surprisingly small--body of empirical evidence that has been developed on this question over the nearly half century since the publication of Nordhaus's book. 33. Title: Patent Licensing, Technology Transfer, and Innovation Authors: Lemley, Mark A.; Feldman, Robin. Abstract: Traditional justifications for patents are based on direct or indirect contribution to product creation. Non-practicing entities (NPEs) might provide such innovation, either directly, through working the patent or transfer of technology to others who do, or indirectly, when others copy. Available evidence suggests, however, that ex post licensing demands from NPEs do not normally involve these activities. Some have argued that patents are valuable without01/technology transfer because the ability to exclude may drive commercialization that would not otherwise occur. We demonstrate that even if commercialization theories sometimes justify patent protection, they cannot justify most NPE lawsuits or licensing demands. 34. Title: Patent Quality and Examination in Europe Authors: Harhoff, Dietmar. Abstract: This paper reports on effects of recent administrative reforms at the European Patent Office (EPO). In EPO-granted patents, claims numbers started to decline in 2008 when new claims fees became effective, claims sections in patents became shorter, and independent claims longer and presumably more specific. The grant rate remained at relatively low levels, but the EPO was unable to stem the use of divisional filings. The developments at the EPO point to a high private value of delay options. Delay may be achieved either by making use of explicit statutory rules or by other means, such as filing divisional applications. 35. Title: Patent Remedies Authors: Shapiro, Carl. Abstract: Since the Supreme Court's eBay decision in 2006, the U.S. has employed a hybrid patent remedy system that mixes property and liability rules. When the patent owner and the infringer are competitors, the courts typically issue a permanent injunction requiring the infringer to cease its infringing activities. In contrast, when the patent owner and the infringer are not competitors, the courts often allow the infringer to continue its infringing activities so long as it pays specified ongoing royalties to the patent holder. This article studies the incentives for invention and for new product development in such a hybrid system. 36. Title: Declining Business Dynamism: What We Know and the Way Forward Authors: Decker, Ryan A.; Haltiwanger, John; Jarmin, Ron S.; Miranda, Javier. Abstract: A growing body of evidence indicates that the U.S. economy has become less dynamic in recent years. This trend is evident in declining rates of gross job and worker flows as well as declining rates of entrepreneurship and young firm activity, and the trend is pervasive across industries, regions, and firm size classes. We describe the evidence on these changes in the U.S. economy by reviewing existing research. We then describe new empirical facts about the relationship between establishment-level productivity and employment growth, framing our results in terms of canonical models of firm dynamics and suggesting empirically testable potential explanations. 37. Title: Wage Posting and Business Cycles Authors: Moscarini, Giuseppe; Postel-Vinay, Fabien. Abstract: The canonical model of job search and wage posting (Burdett and Mortensen, 1998) establishes a natural connection between the average wage growth in the economy and the pace of Employer-to-Employer (EE) transitions, predicting wage growth to be positively related to the pace of EE reallocation for all workers, but especially for stayers. We verify this empirically both with aggregate time series and with longitudinal micro data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). We argue that monetary authorities concerned with inflationary wage pressure should pay more attention directly to EE reallocation and less to the unemployment rate. 38. Title: Firm Entry and Macroeconomic Dynamics: A State-Level Analysis Authors: Gourio, François; Messer, Todd; Siemer, Michael. Abstract: Using an annual panel of US states over the period 1982-2014, we estimate the response of macroeconomic variables to a shock to the number of new firms (startups). We find that these shocks have significant effects that persist for many years on real GDP, productivity, and population. This is consistent with simple models of firm dynamics where a 'missing generation' of firms affects productivity persistently. 39. Title: The Role of Startups in Structural Transformation Authors: Dent, Robert C.; Karahan, Fatih; Pugsley, Benjamin; ^
ahin, Ay_
egül. Abstract: The U.S. economy has been going through a striking structural transformation--the secular reallocation of employment across sectors--over the past several decades. We propose a decomposition framework to assess the contributions of various margins of firm dynamics to this shift. Using firm-level data, we find that at least 50 percent of the adjustment has been taking place along the entry margin, due to sectors receiving different shares of startup employment than their employment shares. The rest is mostly due to life cycle differences across sectors. Declining overall entry has a small but growing effect of dampening structural transformation. 40. Title: Popular Attitudes toward Markets and Democracy: Russia and United States Compared 25 Years Later Authors: Boycko, Maxim; Shiller, Robert J. Abstract: We repeat a survey we did in the waning days of the Soviet Union (Shiller, Boycko and Korobov, AER 1991) comparing attitudes towards free markets between Moscow and New York. Additional survey questions, from Gibson Duch and Tedin (J. Politics 1992) are added to compare attitudes towards democracy. Two comparisons are made: between countries, and through time, to explore the existence of international differences in allegiance to democratic free-market institutions, and the stability of these differences. 41. Title: War, Inflation, and Social Capital Authors: Guriev, Sergei; Melnikov, Nikita. Abstract: We use weekly data from 79 Russian regions to measure the impact of economic shocks and proximity to war in Ukraine on social capital in Russian regions. We proxy social capital by the relative intensity of internet searches for the most salient dimensions of pro-social behavior such as 'donate blood', 'charity', 'adopt a child' etc. This measure of social capital is correlated with a survey-based measure of generalized social trust. Our search-based measure of social capital responds negatively to the spikes of inflation and positively to the intensity of the conflict in Ukraine (controlling for region and week fixed effects). 42. Title: Russia's Billionaires Authors: Treisman, Daniel. Abstract: Using data collected by Forbes since the 1990s, I examine the emergence and survival of the super-wealthy in Russia over the past two decades and compare Russia's record to those of other countries. The major surge in the number of Russian billionaires came in the mid-2000s, mirroring the dynamic worldwide. While early billionaires were predominantly found in the oil, gas, metals, and banking sectors, the distribution has become more diverse, now including some in trade, real estate, chemicals, and information technology. Only a minority of today's Russian billionaires acquired significant assets in the privatization of the 1990s. 43. Title: Paid Parental Leave Laws in the United States: Does Short-Duration Leave Affect Women's Labor-Force Attachment? Authors: Byker, Tanya S. Abstract: I analyze the effects of short-duration paid parental leave on maternal labor supply. Using monthly longitudinal data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation, my event-study research design estimates impacts of paid leave laws in California and New Jersey on women's labor-force outcomes around childbirth. I find that paid leave laws are associated with a substantial increase in labor-force attachment in the months directly around birth. While US-style short-duration leave is unlikely to change prolonged exits from the labor force, my findings imply that paid leave laws induce some women stay more attached to jobs, particularly low-skill women. 44. Title: Has the Increased Attachment of Women to the Labor Market Changed a Family's Ability to Smooth Income Shocks? Authors: Gorbachev, Olga. Abstract: An increase in a married woman's attachment to the labor market affected her family's ability to smooth unexpected income shocks. Between 1970 and 1990, the sharp rise in labor market attachment provided an increasingly important channel for smoothing shocks to spousal income. As the participation rate stabilized, this contribution to smoothing evened out. In the Great Recession, both spouses received negative income shocks, and access to transfer income became the main insurance mechanism. Volatility of consumption followed volatility of family income trends but at a lower magnitude. Families' ability to weather income shocks didn't change during the 1970-2010 period. 45. Title: Evolution of the Marriage Earnings Gap for Women Authors: Juhn, Chinhui; McCue, Kristin. Abstract: Using Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) panels linked to Social Security earnings records, we examine the earnings gap associated with marriage for cohorts of women born between 1936 and 1975. We compare ordinary least squares and fixed-effect estimates. We find that among women who work, the marital earnings gap has all but disappeared in fixed-effects estimates for recent birth cohorts. In fact, among women without children, married women earn more than single women, implying a diminished role for specialization when children are not present. In contrast, the motherhood earnings gap remains large even for recent birth cohorts. 46. Title: The Math Gender Gap: The Role of Culture Authors: Nollenberger, Natalia; Rodríguez-Planas, Núria; Sevilla, Almudena. Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of gender-related culture on the math gender gap by analysing math test scores of second-generation immigrants, who are all exposed to a common set of host country laws and institutions. We find that immigrant girls whose parents come from more gender-equal countries perform better (relative to similar boys) than immigrant girls whose parents come from less gender-equal countries, suggesting an important role of cultural beliefs on the role of women in society on the math gender gap. The transmission of cultural beliefs accounts for at least two thirds of the overall contribution of gender-related factors. 47. Title: Does the Market Value CEO Styles? Authors: Schoar, Antoinette; Zuo, Luo. Abstract: We study how investors perceive the skill set that different types of CEOs bring into their companies. We compare CEOs who started their careers during a recession with other CEOs. We show that the announcement return around the appointment of a recession CEO is very significant and positive, and this positive market reaction is driven by cases where a recession CEO replaces a non-recession CEO. Our results indicate that the market assigns a positive and economically meaningful value to a recession CEO, suggesting that there is a limited supply of these types of CEOs in the executive labor market. 48. Title: Gender Diversity on Corporate Boards: Do Women Contribute Unique Skills? Authors: Kim, Daehyun; Starks, Laura T. Abstract: We show that gender diversity in corporate boards could improve firm value because of the contributions that women make to the board. Prior studies examine valuation effects of gender-diverse boards and reach mixed conclusions. To help resolve this conundrum, we consider how gender diversity could affect firm value, that is, what mechanisms could explain how female directors benefit corporate board performance. We hypothesize and provide evidence that women directors contribute to boards by offering specific functional expertise, often missing from corporate boards. The additional expertise increases board heterogeneity which Kim and Starks (2015) show can increase firm value. 49. Title: Playing the Boys Game: Golf Buddies and Board Diversity Authors: Agarwal, Sumit; Qian, Wenlan; Reeb, David M.; Sing, Tien Foo. Abstract: We study the participation of women in golf, a predominately male social activity, and its influence on their likelihood of serving on a board of directors. Exploiting a novel dataset of all golfers in Singapore, we find that woman golfers enjoy a 54% higher likelihood of serving on a board relative to male golfers. A woman's probability of serving on the board in a large firm or in a predominately male industry increases by 117% to 125% when she plays golf. Joining the boy's informal network appears to facilitate women's entrance or success in the executive labor market. 50. Title: Women on Boards in Finance and STEM Industries Authors: Adams, Renée B.; Kirchmaier, Tom. Abstract: We document that women are less represented on corporate boards in Finance and more traditional STEM industry sectors. Even after controlling for differences in firm and country characteristics, average diversity in these sectors is 24% lower than the mean. Our findings suggest that well-documented gender differences in STEM university enrolments and occupations have long-term consequences for female business leadership. The leadership gap in Finance and STEM may be difficult to eliminate using blanket boardroom diversity policies. Diversity policies are also likely to have a different impact on firms in these sectors than in non-STEM sectors. 51. Title: Childhood Environment and Gender Gaps in Adulthood Authors: Chetty, Raj; Hendren, Nathaniel; Lin, Frina; Majerovitz, Jeremy; Scuderi, Benjamin. Abstract: We show that differences in childhood environments shape gender gaps in adulthood by documenting three facts using population tax records for children born in the 1980s. First, gender gaps in employment rates, earnings, and college attendance vary substantially across the parental income distribution. Notably, the traditional gender gap in employment rates is reversed for children growing up in poor families: boys in families in the bottom quintile of the income distribution are less likely to work than girls. Second, these gender gaps vary substantially across counties and commuting zones in which children grow up. The degree of variation in outcomes across places is largest for boys growing up in poor, single-parent families. Third, the spatial variation in gender gaps is highly correlated with proxies for neighborhood disadvantage. Low-income boys who grow up in high-poverty, high-minority areas work significantly less than girls. These areas also have higher rates of crime, suggesting that boys growing up in concentrated poverty substitute from formal employment to crime. Together, these findings demonstrate that gender gaps in adulthood have roots in childhood, perhaps because childhood disadvantage is especially harmful for boys. 52. Title: School Quality and the Gender Gap in Educational Achievement Authors: Autor, David; Figlio, David; Karbownik, Krzysztof; Roth, Jeffrey; Wasserman, Melanie. Abstract: Recent evidence indicates that boys and girls are differently affected by the quantity and quality of family inputs received in childhood. We assess whether this is also true for schooling inputs. Using matched Florida birth and school administrative records, we estimate the causal effect of school quality on the gender gap in educational outcomes by contrasting opposite-sex siblings who attend the same sets of schools--thereby purging family heterogeneity--and leveraging within-family variation in school quality arising from family moves. Investigating middle school test scores, absences and suspensions, we find that boys benefit more than girls from cumulative exposure to higher quality schools. 53. Title: What Explains the Gender Gap in College Track Dropout? Experimental and Administrative Evidence Authors: Almås, Ingvild; Cappelen, Alexander W.; Salvanes, Kjell G.; Sørensen, Erik Ø.; Tungodden, Bertil. Abstract: We exploit a unique data set, combining rich experimental data with high-quality administrative data, to study dropout from the college track in Norway, and why boys are more likely to drop out. The paper provides three main findings. First, we show that family background and personal characteristics contribute to explain dropout. Second, we show that the gender difference in dropout rates appears both when the adolescents select into the college track and after they have started. Third, we show that different processes guide the choices of the boys and the girls of whether to drop out from the college track. 54. Title: Experimental Age Discrimination Evidence and the Heckman Critique Authors: Neumark, David; Burn, Ian; Button, Patrick. Abstract: We design and implement a large-scale field experiment on age discrimination to address limitations of past research that may bias their results. One limitation is the practice of giving older and younger applicants similar experience in the job to which they are applying, to make them 'otherwise comparable.' The second limitation is ignoring the likelihood of greater variation in unobserved differences among older workers owing to human capital investment. Based on evidence from over 40,000 job applications, we find robust evidence of age discrimination in hiring against older women, but considerably less evidence of age discrimination against older men. 55. Title: The Power of Eye Tracking in Economics Experiments Authors: Lahey, Joanna N.; Oxley, Douglas. Abstract: Eye tracking is a technology that tracks eye activity including how long and where a participant is looking. As eye tracking technology has improved and become more affordable its use has expanded. We discuss how to design, implement, and analyze an experiment using this technology to study economic theory. Using our experience fielding an experiment to study hiring decisions we guide the reader through how to choose an eye tracker, concerns with participants and set-up, types of outputs, limitations of eye tracking, data management and data analysis. We conclude with suggestions for combining eye tracking with other measurements. 56. Title: Determinants of Callbacks to Job Applications: An Audit Study Authors: Farber, Henry S.; Silverman, Dan; von Wachter, Till. Abstract: We summarize findings from an audit study investigating how unemployment duration, age, and holding a low-level 'interim' job affect the likelihood that experienced college-educated females applying for administrative support jobs receive a callback from potential employers. The results show no relationship between callback rates and unemployment duration. In contrast, workers age 50 and older and workers with an 'interim' job are significantly less likely to receive callbacks. We also summarize disparate findings in the growing literature of resume-based audit studies of career histories, and discuss avenues in which the literature could achieve results that are more comparable and externally valid. 57. Title: Supply and Demand for Discrimination: Strategic Revelation of Own Characteristics in a Trust Game Authors: Heyes, Anthony; List, John A. Abstract: In strategic settings a player may be able to influence the behavior of an opponent by revealing information about their own characteristics. They may for example aim to exploit stereotypes held by others. We provide an experimental test of this. A substantial fraction of players in a trust game exhibit a positive willingness to pay to reveal a photograph of themselves to their randomly-assigned partner. This suggests that they perceive that they can use their own characteristics to influence the behavior of others. The demand for such self-revelation depends negatively on price. 58. Title: Student Loan Information Provision and Academic Choices Authors: Schmeiser, Maximilian; Stoddard, Christiana; Urban, Carly. Abstract: We examine the effect of a student loan information intervention on changes in college major using administrative data from the Montana University System from 2002-2014. Our difference-in-difference-in-differences strategy exploits the relative trends for students at Montana State University above and below the cutoff for receiving a warning letter about their student debt, compared to their counterparts at the University of Montana. We find that students who receive information suggesting they may be unlikely to be able to repay their loans are more likely to switch to higher earning majors, with higher academic performers most likely to choose STEM fields. 59. Title: Birth Timing and Neonatal Health Authors: Borra, Cristina; González, Libertad; Sevilla, Almudena. Abstract: We take advantage of a new natural experiment to evaluate the health effects of scheduling birth early for non-medical reasons on infant health. In 2010, the cancellation of a generous child benefit in Spain led may families to schedule birth early in order to remain eligible for the subsidy. We document that the affected cohort of children did not suffer any increase in birth complications or medical conditions right at birth, but were significantly more likely to be admitted to hospital during their second and third weeks of life, suggesting potentially persistent negative health effects. 60. Title: STEM Training and Early Career Outcomes of Female and Male Graduate Students: Evidence from UMETRICS Data Linked to the 2010 Census Authors: Buffington, Catherine; Cerf, Benjamin; Jones, Christina; Weinberg, Bruce A. Abstract: Women are underrepresented in science and engineering, with the underrepresentation increasing in career stage. We analyze gender differences at critical junctures in the STEM pathway--graduate training and the early career--using UMETRICS administrative data matched to the 2010 Census and W-2s. We find strong gender separation in teams, although the effects of this are ambiguous. While no clear disadvantages exist in training environments, women earn 10% less than men once we include a wide range of controls, most notably field of study. This gap disappears once we control for women's marital status and presence of children. 61. Title: Medicare Part D and Portfolio Choice Authors: Ayyagari, Padmaja; He, Daifeng. Abstract: Economic theory suggests that medical spending risk affects the extent to which households are willing to accept financial risk, and consequently their investment portfolios. In this study, we focus on the elderly for whom medical spending represents a substantial risk. We exploit the exogenous reduction in prescription drug spending risk due to the introduction of Medicare Part D in the U.S. in 2006 to identify the causal effect of medical spending risk on portfolio choice. Consistent with theory, we find that Medicare-eligible persons increased risky investment after the introduction of prescription drug coverage, relative to a younger, ineligible cohort. 62. Title: Coordinated Admissions Program Authors: Andrews, Rodney J. Abstract: In the wake of challenges to affirmative action, access to oversubscribed elite public universities remains a contentious issue. Much of the research on these issues focuses on freshman admissions. This paper examines the University of Texas at Austin's Coordinated Admissions Program which offers Texas residents that were not admitted to the University of Texas at Austin as freshman the option of transferring from a participating University of Texas System school. Using the regression discontinuity design, I show that this path to an elite public university has an impact on academic outcomes. 63. Title: Can Admissions Percent Plans Lead to Better Collegiate Fit for Minority Students? Authors: Cortes, Kalena E.; Lincove, Jane Arnold. Abstract: Why do so many students mismatch when choosing a college? A plausible hypothesis is a lack of information about the likelihood of admission. This study contributes to the literature on mismatch by testing whether public university automatic admissions policies mitigate academic undermatch and promote academic overmatch by providing some students with admissions certainty. Focusing on the interaction of admissions certainty and race/ethnicity, our results support the hypothesis that a priori admissions information can vastly improve minority access to college quality by encouraging eligible students to apply to, and more importantly, enroll in more challenging institutions. 64. Title: Religious Workers' Density and the Racial Earnings Gap Authors: Lozano, Fernando; Cheng, Jessica Shiwen. Abstract: We explore differences between Black and White Non-Hispanic workers in the relationship between childhood exposure to religious workers and a worker's labor market outcomes thirty years later. We identify this relationship by exploiting two sources of variation: we use changes in the number of religious workers within states, and we use states' differences by following workers who moved to a different state. Our results suggest that a one percent increase in the number of clergy increases the earnings of Black workers by a range from 0.027 to 0.082 percent relative to the increase in the earnings of White workers. 65. Title: Does the EITC Buffer against Neighborhood Transition? Evidence from Washington, DC. Authors: Brown-Robertson, LaTanya; Casey, Marcus; Hardy, Bradley; Muhammad, Daniel. Abstract: Gentrification in major cities has led to concerns that poor and nonwhite residents are being displaced. This paper uses administrative data on tax filing households in Washington DC to examine the potential role that increases in the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) plays in the location choices of the working poor. Its principal findings suggest small effects of the EITC on move decisions. Married households with dependents who received increased EITC payments are slightly more likely to remain in gentrifying neighborhoods. By contrast, single parent filers receiving EITC payments are more likely to exit these neighborhoods. 66. Title: Classroom Experiments: Is More More? Authors: Emerson, Tisha L. N.; English, Linda. Abstract: Studies have demonstrated that classroom experiments have a positive effect on student achievement in economics courses. Questions remain regarding the appropriate number of experiments. In the current study we attempt to determine whether more intensive use of classroom experiments is associated with greater student achievement. Our data contains variation in the number of experiments administered in a principles of microeconomics course. We find that participation in classroom experiments has a positive, but diminishing, marginal benefit on students' final course scores. We also find that classroom experiments can bridge some achievement gaps (between older and younger students, between whites and minorities). 67. Title: Measuring the Effect of Blended Learning: Evidence from a Selective Liberal Arts College Authors: Swoboda, Aaron; Feiler, Lauren. Abstract: We compare introductory microeconomics courses that employ a blended learning approach to more traditional control courses at a selective liberal arts college. The blended learning courses required students to complete online homework and watch video lectures before problem-based class sessions, while the control courses used paper homework and primarily traditional lecturing. We use the Test of Understanding in College Economics to measure improvement and use the Student Opinion Survey to control for students' self-reported effort and amount of importance placed on the test. We find that students in the blended courses improve more than those in traditional courses. 68. Title: The Impact of Challenge Quizzes on Student Knowledge Authors: McGoldrick, KimMarie; Schuhmann, Peter W. Abstract: We evaluate the efficacy of a blended formative/summative assessment tool developed to support mastery learning by students without placing undue burden on instructors. Our innovation provides students with an opportunity to take a more difficult 'challenge' quiz to demonstrate their command of the material and improve their grade on regular in-class quizzes. The structure of these quizzes motivates students to modify study behaviors (formative component) and take responsibility for knowledge acquisition (summative component). This mastery-based testing approach serves to bring the student's objective of a quality grade in line with the instructor's objective of quality learning. 69. Title: A Randomized Assessment of Online Learning Authors: Alpert, William T.; Couch, Kenneth A.; Harmon, Oskar R. Abstract: A microeconomics principles course employing random assignment across three sections with different teaching models is used to explore learning outcomes as measured by a cumulative final exam for students who participate in traditional face-to-face classroom instruction, blended face-to-face and online instruction with reduced instructor contact time, and a purely online instructional format. Evidence indicates learning outcomes were reduced for students in the purely online section relative to those in the face-to-face format by 5 to 10 points on a cumulative final exam. No statistically significant differences in outcomes are observed for students in the blended relative to the face-to-face section. 70. Title: Sources of Inefficiency in Healthcare and Education Authors: Chandra, Amitabh; Staiger, Douglas. Abstract: Healthcare and education exhibit wide variation in spending that is loosely associated with outcomes. We study supply-side explanations for such variation in in healthcare, and extend this discussion to how it might apply to education. In both sectors, variation in risk-adjusted rates could arise from some providers or educators doing too much (overuse) or others are using too little (underuse). Alternatively, the production function varies across providers and educators, so that hospitals and educators with higher returns to treatment deliver more because of comparative advantage. We discuss how a prototypical Roy model can separate these explanations. 71. Title: Interpreting Tests of School VAM Validity Authors: Angrist, Joshua; Hull, Peter; Pathak, Parag; Walters, Christopher. Abstract: We develop over-identification tests that use admissions lotteries to assess the predictive value of regression-based value-added models (VAMs). These tests have degrees of freedom equal to the number of quasi-experiments available to estimate school effects. By contrast, previously implemented VAM validation strategies look at a single restriction only, sometimes said to measure forecast bias. Tests of forecast bias may be misleading when the test statistic is constructed from many lotteries or quasi-experiments, some of which have weak first stage effects on school attendance. The theory developed here is applied to data from the Charlotte-Mecklenberg School district analyzed by Deming (2014). 72. Title: Using Lagged Outcomes to Evaluate Bias in Value-Added Models Authors: Chetty, Raj; Friedman, John N.; Rockoff, Jonah. Abstract: Value-added (VA) models measure agents' productivity based on the outcomes they produce. The utility of VA models for performance evaluation depends on the extent to which VA estimates are biased by selection. One common method of evaluating bias in VA is to test for balance in lagged values of the outcome. We show that such balance tests do not yield robust information about bias in value-added models using Monte Carlo simulations. Even unbiased VA estimates can be correlated with lagged outcomes. More generally, tests using lagged outcomes are uninformative about the degree of bias in misspecified VA models. The source of these results is that VA is itself estimated using historical data, leading to non-transparent correlations between VA and lagged outcomes. 73. Title: Fixed Effects, Invariance, and Spatial Variation in Intergenerational Mobility Authors: Chamberlain, Gary. Abstract: Chetty et al. (2014) document variation across commuting zones in intergenerational mobility. With over 700 commuting zones, the task of estimating place effects involves a high-dimension parameter space. I develop a fixed-effects model along with an oracle bound on the risk of invariant estimators. The oracle estimator uses an invariant prior, which I have incorporated into a random-effects model to obtain a feasible estimator. This estimator almost achieves the oracle bound over the relevant part of the (fixed-effects) parameter space in the empirical application. There is substantial reduction in risk compared with the least-squares estimator. 74. Title: Identity Economics 2016: Where Do Social Distinctions and Norms Come From? Authors: Kranton, Rachel E. Abstract: Identity economics provides a framework to analyze economic outcomes by establishing people's identities--not just pecuniary incentives--as primary motivations for choice. The heart of the framework is social difference and norms. This paper engages the emerging economic research into sources of divisions and norms: individuals, families, schools, governments, and social movements. The task at hand is to further to develop the micro-foundations of identity, in order to build a socially framed understandings of human motivation that will yield more robust accounts of behavior and institutions and yet better predictions of the implications of policy. 75. Title: Identity-Based Organizations Authors: Carvalho, Jean-Paul. Abstract: A single club model describes the collective production of both personal and social identity. Personal identity, how one perceives oneself, is formed through a process of cultural transmission. Social identity, how one is perceived by others, takes the form of collective reputation. Our model of identity-based organizations incorporates into the economics of identity insights from the economics of religion and cultural transmission. The identities that develop tend to be oppositional. Organizations devoted to more extreme identities are able to support higher levels of participation and collective action. 76. Title: 'We Thinking' and Its Consequences Authors: Akerlof, Robert. Abstract: Increasingly, economists are drawing on concepts from outside economics--such as 'norms,' 'esteem,' and 'identity'--to model agents' social natures. A key reason for studying such social motivation is to shed light on the conditions that facilitate--or deter--collective action. It has been widely observed, for instance, that groups are more able to engage in collective action when they have a common, group identity. This paper gives one explanation for such a link. The paper develops a new concept, 'we thinking'; and it also provides a deeper understanding of the concepts of norms, identity, and esteem. 77. Title: Identity-Driven Cooperation versus Competition Authors: Snower, Dennis J.; Bosworth, Steven J. Abstract: This paper seeks to extend the domain of identity economics by exploring motivational foundations of in-group cooperation and out-group competition. On this basis, we explore the reflexive interaction between individual economic decisions and social identities in response to technological change in market economies. Our analysis explores how technological change falling on marketable goods and services, rather than non-market caring relationships, leads to a restructuring of identities, which increases the scope of individualism and promotes positional competition at the expense of caring activities. Since positional competition generates negative externalities while caring activities create positive ones, these developments have important welfare implications. 78. Title: Option Awareness: The Psychology of What We Consider Authors: Shah, Anuj K.; Ludwig, Jens. Abstract: The standard economic view suggests that people will commit an action if its expected benefits outweigh its costs. But before people weigh the costs and benefits of an action, what affects whether they think of the action in the first place? We argue that actions are more likely to enter into consideration when they are cognitively accessible. We describe three psychological parameters that influence accessibility: automatic assumptions, identity, and perceptions of privacy. These parameters make it possible to identify new interventions for behavior change. 79. Title: Beyond Beta-Delta: The Emerging Economics of Personal Plans Authors: Beshears, John; Milkman, Katherine L.; Schwartzstein, Joshua. Abstract: People make personal plans regarding whether, when, where, and how to undertake certain actions. We discuss three questions related to personal plans. First, what are the effects of plans on behavior? Second, when are plans formed? Third, how do plans deviate from optimality? For each of these questions, we (a) offer a brief overview of research that sheds light on the issue and (b) identify gaps in current knowledge. We emphasize connections to the growing theoretical literature that gives personal plans a substantive role, but we conclude that more research is needed, especially on the latter two questions we cover. 80. Title: The Psychological Lives of the Poor Authors: Schilbach, Frank; Schofield, Heather; Mullainathan, Sendhil. Abstract: All individuals rely on a fundamental set of mental capacities and functions, or bandwidth, in their economic and non-economic lives. Yet, many factors associated with poverty, such as malnutrition, alcohol consumption, or sleep deprivation, may tax this capacity. Previous research has demonstrated that such taxes often significantly alter judgments, preferences, and decision-making. A more suggestive but growing body of evidence points toward potential effects on productivity and utility. Considering the lives of the poor through the lens of bandwidth may improve our understanding of potential causes and consequences of poverty. 81. Title: Refugees, Asylum Seekers, and Policy in OECD Countries Authors: Hatton, Timothy J. Abstract: Refugees and asylum seekers are only a small proportion of the 60 million forcibly displaced persons. But those seeking asylum in the developed world have received much of the attention as western governments have struggled to develop a policy response. An analysis of asylum applications by origin and destination indicates that these flows are largely driven by political terror and human rights abuses. Poor economic conditions in origin countries and tough asylum policies in destination countries matter too. In the light of the findings I suggest that greater coordination among OECD countries could improve the lot of those fleeing from persecution but even this would make only modest inroads into the sum of human misery that displaced people exemplify. 82. Title: Rethinking Protection of Those Displaced by Humanitarian Crises Authors: Martin, Susan F. Abstract: In June 2015, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees announced a landmark event in the history of his organization. UNHCR estimated that there were more refugees and displaced persons than it had counted since its establishment in 1950--almost 60 million who fled conflict and persecution. While certainly large in its own right, the number actually underestimates displacement in today's world. Many millions more are displaced each year and cumulatively from a much broader range of life-threatening humanitarian crises than captured by UNHCR's figures. An average of 26.4 million were displaced annually by acute natural hazards since 2008 and an unknown but sizeable number from gang and cartel violence, electoral and communal violence, nuclear and industrial accidents, and a range of other human made disasters. This paper argues for new legal, institutional and operational frameworks to more effectively address the situation of the totality of displaced persons. 83. Title: Toward an International Migration Regime Authors: Sachs, Jeffrey D. Abstract: Few if any issues in public policy are as muddled and contentious as international migration. There is no international regime that establishes standards and principles for national migration policies other than in the case of refugees (migrants escaping persecution). My aim here is to describe some economic and ethical principles that may underpin an international migration regime. 84. Title: The Economic Impact of Syrian Refugees on Host Countries: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Turkey Authors: Tumen, Semih. Abstract: The Syrian Conflict generated forced immigration from northern Syria to southeastern Turkey. Arrival of refugees resembles a natural experiment, which offers good opportunities to study the economic impact of immigration. I study three main outcomes: labor markets, consumer prices, and housing rents. I document moderate employment losses among native informal workers, which suggests that they are partly substituted by refugees. Prices of the items produced in informal labor intensive sectors declined due to labor cost advantages generated by refugee inflows. Finally, refugee inflows increased the rents of higher quality housing units, while there is no effect on lower quality units. 85. Title: Converging to American: Healthy Immigrant Effect in Children of Immigrants Authors: García-Pérez, Mónica. Abstract: We analyze children of immigrants' healthy immigrant effect using parental year of arrival and region of birth. Using data from Integrated National Health Interview Survey 2008-2014, we evaluate children of immigrants' health status by using obesity rates and the number of visits to the doctor versus their native counterparts. Consistent with their parents, children of immigrants' health status declines the longer their parents, remain in the United States. Meanwhile, there is an increase in the number of visits to the doctor the more years their parents, have resided in the country. The convergence rate differs by immigrant group. 86. Title: Ethnic Attrition and the Observed Health of Later-Generation Mexican Americans Authors: Antman, Francisca; Duncan, Brian; Trejo, Stephen J. Abstract: Numerous studies find that U.S.-born Hispanics differ significantly from non-Hispanic whites on important measures of human capital, including health. Nevertheless, almost all studies rely on subjective measures of ethnic self-identification to identify immigrants' U.S.-born descendants. This can lead to bias due to 'ethnic attrition,' which occurs whenever a U.S.-born descendant of a Hispanic immigrant fails to self-identify as Hispanic. This paper shows that Mexican American ethnic attritors are generally more likely to display health outcomes closer to those of non-Hispanic whites. This biases conventional estimates of Mexican American health away from suggesting patterns of assimilation and convergence with non-Hispanic whites. 87. Title: HIV/AIDS and Development: A Reappraisal of the Productivity and Factor Accumulation Effects Authors: Azomahou, Théophile T.; Boucekkine, Raouf; Diene, Bity. Abstract: We build an economico-epidemiological Solow-Swan model. Mortality and morbidity effects on effective labor are taken into account. A Ben-Porath-like mechanism affects the dynamics of the saving rate and reduces labor productivity. Based on optimal projections of the demographic and economic South African series on the period 2000-2050, we identify a delayed effect of HIV/AIDS on economic growth: the growth rate gap between the AIDS and no-AIDS scenarios is rather stable between 2010 and 2020, but then it increases sharply between 2020 and 2030, keeps increasing at a much lower pace between 2030 and 2040, and finally stabilizes after 2040. The fall in active population is the main factor behind AIDS impact on economic growth during the decade 2020-2030 while the Ben-Porath mechanism on labor productivity is more relevant in the last decade. Physical capital accumulation plays a minor role. 88. Title: LEP Language Disability, Immigration Reform, and English-Language Acquisition Authors: Dávila, Alberto; Mora, Marie T. Abstract: Policy might partly shape the English-language acquisition of Hispanics migrating to the U.S. mainland, particularly policies related to limited-English-language disability benefits and immigration reform. Using data from the American Community Survey, we find that island-born Puerto Ricans on the U.S. mainland, as U.S. citizens, may have lower incentives to learn English than Hispanic immigrants because of their higher participation in LEP disability programs. However, among Mexican immigrants, recent immigration reform aimed at interior enforcement might have increased incentives for Mexican immigrants to learn English to reduce their probability of detection, if speaking English proxies for undocumented status. 89. Title: On the Optimal Inflation Rate Authors: Brunnermeier, Markus K.; Sannikov, Yuliy. Abstract: In our incomplete markets economy households choose portfolios consisting of risky (uninsurable) capital and money. Money is a bubble, it has positive value even though it yields no payoff. The market outcome is constrained Pareto inefficient due to a pecuniary externality. Each individual agent takes the real interest rate as given, while in the aggregate it is driven by the economic growth rate, which in turn depends on individual portfolio decisions. Higher inflation due to higher money growth lowers the real interest rate on money and tilts the portfolio choice towards physical capital investment. Modest inflation boosts growth rate and welfare. 90. Title: Sooner or Later: Timing of Monetary Policy with Heterogeneous Risk-Taking Authors: Choi, Dong Beom; Eisenbach, Thomas M.; Yorulmazer, Tanju. Abstract: We analyze the effects and interactions of monetary policy tools that differ in terms of their timing and their targeting. In a model with heterogeneous agents, more productive agents endogenously expose themselves to higher interim liquidity risk by borrowing and investing more. Two inefficiencies impair the transmission of monetary policy: an investment- and a hoarding inefficiency. Heterogeneous agents respond disparately to ex-ante, conventional and ex-post, unconventional monetary policy. However, we show that the two policies are equivalent due to the endogeneity of hoarding. In contrast, targeted interventions such as discount-window lending can alleviate both inefficiencies at the same time. 91. Title: Money and Asset Liquidity in Frictional Capital Markets Authors: Cui, Wei; Radde, Sören. Abstract: We endogenize asset liquidity and financing constraints in a dynamic general equilibrium model with search frictions on capital markets. Assets traded on frictional capital markets are only partially saleable. Liquid assets, such as fiat money, instead, are not subject to search frictions and can be used to insure idiosyncratic investment risks. Partially saleable assets thus carry a liquidity premium over fully liquid assets. We show that, in equilibrium, low asset saleability is typically associated with lower asset prices, tighter financing constraints, thus stronger demand for public liquidity. Lower asset liquidity feeds into real allocations, constraining real investment, consumption, and production. 92. Title: Secular Stagnation in the Open Economy Authors: Eggertsson, Gauti B.; Mehrotra, Neil R.; Summers, Lawrence H. Abstract: Conditions of secular stagnation--low interest rates, below target inflation, and sluggish output growth--now characterize much of the global economy. We consider a simple two-country textbook model to examine how capital markets transmit secular stagnation and to study policy externalities across countries. We find capital flows transmit recessions in a world with low interest rates and that policies that attempt to boost national saving are beggar-thy-neighbor. Monetary expansion cannot eliminate a secular stagnation and may have beggar-thy-neighbor effects, while sufficiently large fiscal interventions can eliminate a secular stagnation and carry positive externalities. 93. Title: The Sovereign-Bank Diabolic Loop and ESBies Authors: Brunnermeier, Markus K.; Garicano, Luis; Lane, Philip R.; Pagano, Marco; Reis, Ricardo; Santos, Tano; Thesmar, David; Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn; Vayanos, Dimitri. Abstract: We propose a simple model of the sovereign-bank diabolic loop, and establish four results. First, the diabolic loop can be avoided by restricting banks' domestic sovereign exposures relative to their equity. Second, equity requirements can be lowered if banks only hold senior domestic sovereign debt. Third, such requirements shrink even further if banks only hold the senior tranche of an internationally diversified sovereign portfolio--known as ESBies in the euro-area context. Finally, ESBies generate more safe assets than domestic debt tranching alone; and, insofar as the diabolic loop is defused, the junior tranche generated by the securitization is itself risk-free. 94. Title: Safe Asset Scarcity and Aggregate Demand Authors: Caballero, Ricardo J.; Farhi, Emmanuel; Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier. Abstract: We explore the consequences of safe asset scarcity on aggregate demand in a stylized IS-LM/Mundell Fleming style environment. Acute safe asset scarcity forces the economy into a 'safety trap' recession. In the open economy, safe asset scarcity spreads from one country to the other via capital flows, equalizing interest rates. Acute global safe asset scarcity forces the economy into a global safety trap. The exchange rate becomes indeterminate but plays a crucial role in both the distribution and the magnitude of output adjustment across countries. Policies that increase the net supply of safe assets somewhere are output enhancing everywhere. 95. Title: What Makes US Government Bonds Safe Assets? Authors: He, Zhiguo; Krishnamurthy, Arvind; Milbradt, Konstantin. Abstract: US government bonds are considered to be the world's safe store of value, especially during periods of economic turmoil such as the events of 2008. But what makes US government bonds 'safe assets'? We highlight coordination among investors, and build a model in which two countries with heterogeneous sizes issue bonds that may be chosen as safe asset. Our model illustrates the benefit of a large absolute debt size as safe asset investors have 'nowhere else to go' in equilibrium, and the large country's bonds are chosen as the safe asset. Moreover, the effect becomes stronger in crisis periods. 96. Title: Crises and The Development of Economic Institutions: Some Microeconomic Evidence Authors: Rajan, Raghuram; Ramcharan, Rodney. Abstract: This paper studies the long run effects of financial crises using new bank and town level data from around the Great Depression. We find evidence that banking markets became much more concentrated in areas that experienced a greater initial collapse in the local banking system. There is also evidence that financial regulation after the Great Depression, and in particular limits on bank branching, may have helped to render the effects of the initial collapse persistent. All of this suggests a reason why post-crisis financial regulation, while potentially reducing financial instability, might also have longer run real consequences. 97. Title: Too Big to Fail Before the Fed Authors: Gorton, Gary; Tallman, Ellis W. Abstract: 'Too-big-to-fail' is consistent with policies followed by private bank clearing houses during financial crises in the U.S. National Banking Era prior to the existence of the Federal Reserve System. Private bank clearing houses provided emergency lending to member banks during financial crises. This behavior strongly suggests that 'too-big-to-fail' is not the problem causing modern crises. Rather it is a reasonable response to the threat posed to large banks by the vulnerability of short-term debt to runs. 98. Title: Interbank Markets and Banking Crises: New Evidence on the Establishment and Impact of the Federal Reserve Authors: Carlson, Mark; Wheelock, David C. Abstract: This paper examines the impact of the Federal Reserve's founding on seasonal pressures and contagion risk in the interbank system. Deposit flows among classes of banks were highly seasonal before 1914; amplitude and timing varied regionally. Panics interrupted normal flows as banks throughout the country sought funds from the central money markets simultaneously. Seasonal pressures and contagion risk in the system were lower by the 1920s, when the Fed provided seasonal liquidity and reserves. Panics returned in the 1930s, due in part to shocks from nonmember banks and because the Fed's decentralized structure hampered a vigorous response to national crises. 99. Title: Bank Leverage and Regulatory Regimes: Evidence from the Great Depression and Great Recession Authors: Koch, Christoffer; Richardson, Gary; Van Horn, Patrick. Abstract: In the boom before the Great Depression, capital requirements for commercial banks were low and fixed. Bankers faced double liability. Failing banks were not bailed out. During the boom before the Great Recession, capital requirements were proportional to risk-weighted assets. Bankers faced limited liability. Banks deemed too big to fail received bailouts. During the 1920s, the largest banks increased capital levels as asset prices rose. During the boom from 2002 to 2007, the largest institutions kept capital levels near regulatory minimums. Our results suggest more market discipline would have induced the largest U.S. banks to hold greater capital buffers prior to the financial crisis of 2008. 100. Title: A Simple Model of Subprime Borrowers and Credit Growth Authors: Justiniano, Alejandro; Primiceri, Giorgio E.; Tambalotti, Andrea. Abstract: The surge in credit and house prices that preceded the Great Recession was particularly pronounced in ZIP codes with a higher fraction of subprime borrowers (Mian and Sufi, 2009). We present a simple model with prime and subprime borrowers distributed across geographic locations, which can reproduce this stylized fact as a result of an expansion in the supply of credit. Due to their low income, subprime households are constrained in their ability to meet interest payments and hence sustain debt. As a result, when the supply of credit increases and interest rates fall, they take on disproportionately more debt than their prime counterparts, who are not subject to that constraint. 101. Title: Debt Constraints and the Labor Wedge Authors: Kehoe, Patrick; Midrigan, Virgiliu; Pastorino, Elena. Abstract: Changes in household debt and employment across regions of the U.S. during the Great Recession are highly correlated: regions where the decrease in household debt was most pronounced were also regions where the decline in employment was most severe. We show that the drop in employment in the regions that have experienced the largest decrease in household debt is mostly accounted for by changes in the labor wedge (deviations from a static consumption-leisure choice) as opposed to changes in real wages. We argue that such a pattern is consistent with fluctuations in debt constrain01/2ts in a standard Bewley-Aiyagari model. 102. Title: Anticipated Banking Panics Authors: Gertler, Mark; Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro; Prestipino, Andrea. Abstract: We develop a macroeconomic model with banking instability. Sunspot runs can arise that are harmful to the economy. However, whether a run equilibrium exists depends on fundamentals. In contrast to earlier work, the probability of a sunspot run is the outcome of rational forecast based on fundamentals. The model captures the movement from slow to fast runs that was a feature of the Great Recession: A weakening of banks' balance sheets increases the probability of a run, leading depositors to withdraw funds from banks. These slow runs have harmful effects on the economy and set the stage for fast runs. 103. Title: Bank Leverage and Social Welfare Authors: Christiano, Lawrence; Ikeda, Daisuke. Abstract: We describe a general equilibrium model in which an agency problem arises because bankers must exert an unobserved and costly effort to perform their task. Suppose aggregate banker net worth is too low to insulate creditors from bad outcomes on their balance sheet. Then, banks borrow too much in equilibrium because there is a pecuniary externality associated with bank borrowing. Social welfare is increased by imposing a binding leverage restriction on banks. We formalize this argument and provide a numerical example. 104. Title: Capital Flows: Expansionary or Contractionary? Authors: Blanchard, Olivier; Ostry, Jonathan D.; Ghosh, Atish R.; Chamon, Marcos. Abstract: The workhorse open-economy macro model suggests that capital inflows are contractionary because they appreciate the currency and reduce net exports. Emerging market policy makers, however, believe that inflows lead to credit booms and rising output; the evidence appears to go their way. To reconcile theory and reality, we extend the set of assets in the Mundell-Fleming model to include both bonds and non-bonds. At a given policy rate, inflows may decrease the rate on non-bonds, stimulating financial intermediation and, potentially, output as well. We explore the implications, and find support for the key predictions in the data. 105. Title: The Macroprudential Role of International Reserves Authors: Jeanne, Olivier. Abstract: There has been a lot of interest since the global financial crisis in policies allowing emerging market economies to smooth the effects of the global financial cycle. Although the literature has focused mostly on capital controls emerging market governments have relied mostly on international reserves management. This paper discusses the role of reserves in capital flow management based on a simple welfare-based model of capital flows with international banking frictions. 106. Title: Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815-2015 Authors: Reinhart, Carmen M.; Reinhart, Vincent; Trebesch, Christoph. Abstract: Capital flow and commodity cycles have long been connected with economic crises. Sparse historical data, however, has made it difficult to connect their timing. We date turning points in global capital flows and commodity prices across two centuries and provide estimates from alternative data sources. We then document a strong overlap between the ebb and flow of financial capital, the commodity price super-cycle, and sovereign defaults since 1815. The results have implications for today, as many emerging markets are facing a double bust in capital inflows and commodity prices, making them vulnerable to crises. 107. Title: When Do Capital Inflow Surges End in Tears? Authors: Ghosh, Atish R.; Ostry, Jonathan D.; Qureshi, Mahvash S. Abstract: We investigate in a sample of 53 emerging markets over 1980-2014 whether countries with open capital accounts are necessarily at the mercy of global events, or are able to take policy actions when receiving inflows to mitigate the impact of a subsequent reversal. Our analysis suggests that, while changes in global conditions have an important bearing on crisis susceptibility, countries that allow the buildup of macroeconomic and financial vulnerabilities during boom times, and which receive mostly debt flows, are significantly more likely to see capital inflow surge episodes end in a financial crisis. 108. Title: Information Design, Bayesian Persuasion, and Bayes Correlated Equilibrium Authors: Bergemann, Dirk; Morris, Stephen. Abstract: A set of players have preferences over a set of outcomes. We consider the problem of an 'information designer' who can choose an information structure for the players to serve his ends, but has no ability to change the mechanism (or force the players to make particular action choices). We describe a unifying perspective for information design. We consider a simple example of Bayesian persuasion with both an uninformed and informed receiver. We extend information design to many player and relate it to the literature on incomplete information correlated equilibrium. 109. Title: Bayesian Persuasion in Coordination Games Authors: Goldstein, Itay; Huang, Chong. Abstract: We analyze a coordination game of regime change where the policy maker, who tries to increase the probability of the survival of the regime, commits ex ante to abandon the regime automatically when its fundamentals are below a certain threshold. This policy acts as an information transmission mechanism: agents, who decide whether to attack the regime or not, update positively about the fundamentals of the regime when they see that it has not been abandoned, and so they are less likely to attack. Using the commitment ability, the policy maker can thus increase the overall survival probability of the regime. 110. Title: A Rothschild-Stiglitz Approach to Bayesian Persuasion Authors: Gentzkow, Matthew; Kamenica, Emir. Abstract: Rothschild and Stiglitz (1970) represent random variables as convex functions (integrals of the cumulative distribution function). Combining this representation with Blackwell's Theorem (1953), we characterize distributions of posterior means that can be induced by a signal. This characterization provides a novel way to analyze a class of Bayesian persuasion problems. 111. Title: Shutting Down the Thermohaline Circulation Authors: Anthoff, David; Estrada, Francisco; Tol, Richard S. J. Abstract: Past climatic changes were caused by a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation. We use results from experiments with three climate models to show that the expected cooling due to a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation is less in magnitude than the expected warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The integrated assessment model FUND and a meta-analysis of climate impacts are used to evaluate the change in human welfare. We find modest but by and large positive effects on human welfare since a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation implies decelerated warming. 112. Title: A Potential Disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Implications for Economic Analyses of Climate Policy Authors: Diaz, Delavane; Keller, Klaus. Abstract: The Earth system may react in a nonlinear threshold response to climate forcings. Incorporating threshold responses into integrated assessment models (IAMs) used for climate policy analysis poses nontrivial challenges, for example due to methodological limitations and pervasive deep uncertainties. Here we explore a specific threshold response, a potential disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). We review the current scientific understanding of WAIS, identify methodological and conceptual issues, and demonstrate avenues to address some of them through a stochastic hazard IAM framework combining emulation, expert knowledge, and learning. We conclude with a discussion of challenges and research needs. 113. Title: The Ecosystem Impacts of Severe Warming Authors: Mendelsohn, Robert; Prentice, Iain C.; Schmitz, Oswald; Stocker, Benjamin; Buchkowski, Robert; Dawson, Benjamin. Abstract: This paper uses a quantitative dynamic ecosystem vegetation model to explore the potential impact of warming up to 9-12 degrees C on global ecosystems. The paper does not find evidence of a global collapse in terrestrial ecosystems but there is evidence of substantial changes. Temperate and tropical forests expand and replace boreal forests and forests shift to woodlands and parkland at high temperatures. Net primary productivity and standing forest biomass per hectare rise. These changes will affect dependent animal species. Further research is needed to measure the resulting benefits and damages to market and nonmarket services. 114. Title: Economic Effects of an Ocean Acidification Catastrophe Authors: Colt, Stephen G.; Knapp, Gunnar P. Abstract: We assess the potential magnitude of the economic effects of an ocean acidification (OA) catastrophe by focusing on marine ecosystem services most likely to be affected. It is scientifically plausible that by 2200 OA could cause a complete collapse of marine capture fisheries, complete destruction of coral reefs, and significant rearrangement of marine ecosystems. Upper-bound values for losses from the first two effects range from 97 to 301 billion 2014 dollars per year (0.09 - 0.28% of current world GDP). We argue that aquaculture output would not be reduced, due to the high potential for adaptation by this young industry. 115. Title: How Mortgage Finance Reform Could Affect Housing Authors: Duca, John V.; Muellbauer, John; Murphy, Anthony. Abstract: Although major changes in mortgage finance have occurred since the subprime bust, several issues remain unresolved, centering on the roles of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the FHA. We analyze how some reforms might affect house prices in a framework rich enough to simulate the impact of several reforms which change mortgage interest rates and/or loan-to-value (LTV) ratios of first time home buyers, the key drivers of house prices in recent decades. Simulations suggest that ending the GSE interest rate subsidy would have small effects, while changes in capital requirements or maximum FHA loan size limits would have larger effects. 116. Title: Borrowing Constraints and Homeownership Authors: Acolin, Arthur; Bricker, Jesse; Calem, Paul; Wachter, Susan. Abstract: This paper identifies the impact of borrowing constraints on homeownership in the U.S. in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. While homeownership declines and tightened credit are evident, the role the tightening of credit has had on the probability of individual households to become homeowners has not been previously identified. The homeownership rate in 2010-2013 is estimated to be 2.3 percentage points lower than if the constraints were set at the 2001 level. 117. Title: A Lost Generation? Education Decisions and Employment Outcomes during the US Housing Boom-Bust Cycle of the 2000s Authors: Laeven, Luc; Popov, Alexander. Abstract: We exploit regional variations in U.S. house price fluctuations during the boom-bust cycle of the 2000s to study the impact of the housing cycle on young Americans' choices related to education and employment. We find that in MSAs which experienced large increases in house prices between 2001 and 2006, young adults were substantially more likely to forego a higher education and join the workforce, lowering skill formation. During the bust years, the young, especially those without higher education, were more likely to be unemployed in areas which experienced higher declines in house prices. 118. Title: To Buy or Not to Buy: Consumer Constraints in the Housing Market Authors: Fuster, Andreas; Zafar, Basit. Abstract: We use a strategic household survey to study the sensitivity of intended homeownership decisions to financing constraints. We find that the average stated likelihood of buying a home is strongly sensitive to the size of the required down payment, which we vary exogenously across three scenarios. This sensitivity is particularly high for respondents that appear more liquidity constrained based on observable characteristics (including current renters, or owners with low savings or low home equity). For renters, expectations of future rent inflation and of improvements to their personal financial situation also predict intention to buy. 119. Title: Estimating Top Income and Wealth Shares: Sensitivity to Data and Methods Authors: Bricker, Jesse; Henriques, Alice; Krimmel, Jacob; Sabelhaus, John. Abstract: Administrative income tax data indicate that U.S. top income and wealth shares are both substantial and larger than shares observed in household surveys. However, these estimates are sensitive to the unit of analysis, the income concept measured in tax records, and, in the case of wealth, to assumptions about the correlation between income and wealth. We constrain a household survey--the Survey of Consumer Finances--to be conceptually comparable to tax records and are able to reconcile the much of the difference between the survey and administrative estimates. Wealth estimates from administrative income tax data are sensitive to model parameters. 120. Title: Estimating the Top Tail of the Wealth Distribution Authors: Vermeulen, Philip. Abstract: This paper uses the Household Finance and Consumption Survey to construct new estimates of top wealth shares in Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Austria, Finland and The Netherlands. It provides a methodology to address simultaneously non-response and underreporting in wealth surveys. 121. Title: Heterogeneity in Returns to Wealth and the Measurement of Wealth Inequality Authors: Fagereng, Andreas; Guiso, Luigi; Malacrino, Davide; Pistaferri, Luigi. Abstract: Lacking a long time series on the assets of the very wealthy, Saez and Zucman (2015) use US tax records to obtain estimates of wealth holdings by capitalizing asset income from tax returns. They document marked upward trends in wealth concentration. We use data on tax returns and actual wealth holdings from tax records for the whole Norwegian population to test the robustness of the methodology. We document that measures of wealth based on the capitalization approach can lead to misleading conclusions about the level and the dynamics of wealth inequality if returns are heterogeneous and even moderately correlated with wealth. 122. Title: The Role of Bequests in Shaping Wealth Inequality: Evidence from Danish Wealth Records Authors: Boserup, Simon H.; Kopczuk, Wojciech; Kreiner, Claus T. Abstract: Using Danish administrative data, we estimate the impact of bequests on the level and inequality of wealth. We compare the distributions of wealth over time of people whose parent died and those whose parent did not. Bequests account for 26 percent of the average post-bequest wealth 1-3 years after parental death and significantly affect wealth throughout the distribution. Bequests increase absolute wealth inequality (variance of the distribution censored at the top/bottom 1% increases by 33 percent), but reduce relative inequality (the top 1% share declines by 6 percentage points from the base of 31 percent). 123. Title: Revenue and Incentive Effects of Basis Step-Up at Death: Lessons from the 2010 'Voluntary' Estate Tax Regime Authors: Gordon, Robert; Joulfaian, David; Poterba, James. Abstract: In 2010, the U.S. estate tax expired and executors of wealthy decedents were not required to file estate tax returns. 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