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World Development Volume 140, Issue 4, April 2021 1. Title: Decentralization and the governance of climate adaptation: Situating community-based planning within broader trajectories of political transformation Authors: Harry W. Fischer Abstract: Decentralized, “community-based” approaches to climate adaptation are now viewed as a key strategy to assist vulnerable populations confront global climate change. While these efforts are premised on the belief that citizen participation will lead to more effective climate responses, there remains limited empirical evidence of the relationship between local democracy and climate risk reduction. This paper asks: How, and through which processes, do local institutions emerge as more substantively democratic arenas to coordinate responses to climate risk and change? And how does the character of local democratic practice, in turn, influence the effectiveness of adaptive responses? To answer these questions, the paper analyzes the implementation of India’s Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA)—a substantial devolution of development resources to rural local governments in India—and its effects on climate risk reduction in the state of Himachal Pradesh. A primary dataset of 798 small-scale development projects in 35 villages shows that a majority of water-related interventions are helping to improve water access in the face of water stress, while benefits skew towards poorer and historically marginalized social groups. Drawing on intensive qualitative enquiry, the paper argues that these outcomes were made possible as the result of long-term political transformations in the region, which have paved the way for more inclusive — if often contested — participation in local decision-making processes. The analysis underscores the need to move beyond a narrow focus on institutional building to undertake longer-term investments in supporting more robust subnational democratic systems. The growing flow of resources dedicated to climate assistance has the potential to help drive such processes where the nascent conditions for democratic deepening are in place. 2. Title: Do inequalities predict fear of crime? Empirical evidence from Mexico Authors: Matthieu Clément, Lucie Piaser Abstract: Deeply rooted in the social disorganization theory, this article aims at studying the causal impact of local inequality, a main community structural factor, on individuals’ fear of crime. Combining multiple datasets and focusing on the Mexican case, this study has several goals. First, we construct an innovative index of fear of crime composed of three dimensions: emotion, cognition and behavior. Second, we build measures of income and education inequality representative at the municipal level. Lastly, we assess the causal effect of inequalities on fear of crime, controlling both for the hierarchical structure of the data and endogeneity bias relying on two-stage least squares (2SLS) multilevel models. Our results suggest a strong positive linear relationship between municipal income inequality and fear of crime. However, the observed effect is stronger for the emotive and behavioral dimensions. Concerning education inequality, we also find a positive impact on feeling of unsafety (emotive dimension), but of smaller magnitude, and on risk perception (cognitive dimension). While our results are robust to different robustness checks for income inequality, they are less stable for education inequality. 3. Title: Gender equality is diluted in commitments made to small-scale fisheries Authors: Sarah Lawless, Philippa J. Cohen, Sangeeta Mangubhai, Danika Kleiber, Tiffany H. Morrison Abstract: Gender equality is a mainstream principle of good environmental governance and sustainable development. Progress toward gender equality in the fisheries sector is critical for effective and equitable development outcomes in coastal countries. However, while commitments to gender equality have surged at global, regional and national levels, little is known about how this principle is constructed, and implemented across different geographies and contexts. Consequently, progress toward gender equality is difficult to assess and navigate. To identify influential policy instruments (n = 76), we conducted key-informant interviews with governance actors engaged in small-scale fisheries (n = 26) and gender and development (n = 9) sectors across the Pacific Islands region. We systematically analysed these instruments according to (1) representations of gender and gender equality, (2) rationales for pursing gender, and (3) gender strategies and actions. We found that fisheries policy instruments frequently narrowed the concept of gender to a focus on women, whereas gender and development policy instruments considered gender as diverse social identities, norms and relations. In fisheries policy instruments, rationales for pursuing gender equality diverged substantially yet, overall the principle was predominantly pursued for instrumental (i.e., improved environmental outcomes) rather than intrinsic (i.e., an inherent value in fairness) reasons. Over two-thirds of gender equality strategies focused on an organization’s own human resourcing and project assessments, rather than on direct action within communities, or for women and men reliant on fisheries. Our findings illustrate gender equality commitments and investments to be narrow and outdated. Critical shifts in dominant gender equality narratives and objectives, and an embrace of multi-level strategies, provide opportunities for fisheries governance and development agendas to rise to current best practice, and ultimately make meaningful (opposed to rhetorical) progress toward gender equality. The methodological approach we develop holds value for other development sectors to critically examine, and subsequently enhance, commitment toward gender equality. 4. Title: Perceptions and acceptability of electricity theft: Towards better public service provision Authors: Jason Chun Yu Wong, Brian Blankenship, Johannes Urpelainen, Karthik Ganesan, ... Kanika Balani Abstract: In many developing countries, theft remains a significant obstacle to ensuring proper public service provision and access. We argue that social acceptability of theft constitutes an understudied barrier to curbing power theft. Using a conjoint experiment, we study perceptions of theft in the form of using illegal wires, katiya, among rural and urban households in Uttar Pradesh, India (n = 1800). Social acceptability of theft is influenced by the income and electricity supply quality contexts of offenders. For a 1000-rupee (approx. 15 USD) income difference between hypothetical vignette agents, the odds of choosing a higher acceptability rating for an offender increases by 11%. One fewer hour of electricity supply received by the vignette person would increase the acceptability of their theft activity by 4%. The majority of respondents chose a warning as the appropriate punishment severity; income and supply quality distinguish the odds of choosing higher punishment categories. While there exists a sense of social reprimand for stealing power, desired punishment is nuanced and context-dependent. 5. Title: Mining and quality of public services: The role of local governance and decentralization Authors: Maty Konte, Rose Camille Vincent Abstract: This paper investigates the local effects of mining on the quality of public services and on people’s optimism about their future living conditions in Africa. Most importantly, it assesses the moderating role of local institutions and local governments’ taxing rights in shaping the proximity-to-mine effects. The empirical framework connects more than 130,000 respondents from the Afrobarometer survey data (2005–2015) to their closest mines based on the geolocation coordinates of the enumeration areas (EA) and data on the mines and their respective status from the SNL Metals & Mining by the S&P. The geo-referenced data are matched with new indicators on local governments’ taxing rights across the African continent. Using a difference-in-differences strategy, the results indicate that citizens living near an active mine are less likely to approve government performance in key public goods and services – including health, job creation and improving living standards of the poor. On the moderating role of local governance and local taxing rights, the findings point to a negative impact of local corruption, yet a positive impact of local authorities’ discretion over tax and revenues. However, the positive impact of local taxing powers tends to reduce in environments with poor quality of local governance, high incidence of bribe payment and low level of trust in local government officials. Residents of mining communities with low corruption and comparatively high-level of raising revenue ability have the highest rate of positive appraisal compared to the other scenarios. 6. Title: The impact of remittances on food insecurity: Evidence from Mexico Authors: Jorge Mora-Rivera, Edwin van Gameren Abstract: Literature has provided evidence that remittances have an impact on (economic) development and quality of life in developing countries. However, little is known about how remittances from different origins are used in relation to food insecurity. Using data from the CONEVAL Rural Households Surveys (ENCHOR) of 2013 and 2015, we estimate ordered probit regressions with instrumental variables in order to assess the potentially distinct impacts of international and internal remittances on food insecurity of households in rural Mexico. Our findings show that both kinds of remittances have significant effects on food insecurity. International remittances appear to reduce food insecurity more than internal remittances, although not enough to make remittance-receiving households food secure. The findings suggest that remittances are an important coping strategy but are not sufficient to eradicate the precarious food insecurity of poor households in rural Mexico. Therefore, remittances should be considered as a complementary step to reduce food insecurity levels, but should not replace the government’s responsibility for solving this problem. 7. Title: Predicting the long-term social and ecological impacts of tree-planting programs: Evidence from northern India Authors: Pushpendra Rana, Daniel C. Miller Abstract: Planting trees has long been a major forest improvement and management activity globally. Forest plantations take years, even decades to mature and establish. Yet most national and international projects to support plantations are of relatively short duration, which presents a major challenge to near-term accountability as well as assessment of longer-term social and ecological impacts. Here, we address this challenge by identifying and empirically validating a set of predictive proxy indicators (PPIs)—measures on key variables taken during program implementation that are predictive of longer-term impacts—for community-oriented tree-planting efforts in northern India. Using process-tracing and qualitative comparative analysis, we find that clusters of PPIs explained vegetation growth trajectories and other outcomes over more than a decade in 23 randomly selected public forest plantations in Kangra district, Himachal Pradesh. PPIs relating to property rights and local livelihood benefits, community-led monitoring and enforcement, and seedling survival rate, together, were associated with successful long-term forest plantation outcomes, including more tree cover and socio-economic benefits for local communities. The causal pathways identified in this study suggest that measuring and comparing indicator values in specific spatial and temporal contexts can help to assess the likelihood and directionality of the long-term social and ecological impacts of forest plantations. In addition to the empirical contribution it makes, this study also demonstrates a novel approach to understanding long-term impacts of public forest plantations relevant to country contexts around the world. 8. Title: Deportations and the transnational roots of gang violence in Central America Authors: Christian Ambrosius Abstract: It has often been claimed that the violent gangs that haunt Central America today are rooted in urban metropoles of the United States and have been exported to Central America through the deportation of convicted gang members. This case study on El Salvador provides econometric evidence that the deportation of convicts led to the spread of gangs along migration corridors. Cross-sectional analysis at the subnational level reveals that migrants’ municipalities of origin have a higher probability of gang presence today when migrant corridors developed around US destinations with high incidences of violent crime before migrants arrived. The cross-sectional evidence is backed by panel data analysis that allows testing the underlying mechanism. The inflow of convicted felons translated into rising homicide rates along migration corridors, whereas the inflow of non-convicts did not increase violence. In sum, the inflow of deported convicts constituted an exogenous spark of violence that had large and lasting consequences in countries that lacked the social, institutional and economic capacities to control the spread of gangs. 9. Title: Integrating the four faces of climate change adaptation: Towards transformative change in Guatemalan coffee communities Authors: Gail Hochachka Abstract: Despite the complexity of climate change, the dominant definition and practice of adaptation remains reactive, incremental, and focused primarily on biophysical and techno-managerial changes. Researchers suggest this is necessary but insufficient, noting the importance of integrating subjectivity in a more comprehensive approach to adaptation and in moving toward deliberate transformation in a climate change context. Here, I consider how to expand the scope and depth of ‘adaptation’ as it is currently defined and practiced, presenting an Integral conceptual framework that integrates the ‘interior’ forms of adaptation and thus can account for the diverse ways that local people are responding to entangled changes at the local level. Drawing on case study research in Guatemala, I explore how a more balanced integration of subjective and objective adaptive capacities, in individuals and collectives, leads to four types of adaptation—personal, practical, critical-structural, and co-generative. Findings describe: 1) how critical-structural adaptations were helpful in disrupting structural arrangements in ways that practical adaptations alone were not; and 2) that the interior adaptations (personal and co-generative) were less emphasized overall but can be effectively integrated, either implicitly or explicitly, with dominant forms of adaptation practice. This study demonstrates how a more comprehensive approach to adaptation may better position communities to engage in transformative change. 10. Title: Redistributing resilience? Deliberate transformation and political capabilities in post-Haiyan Tacloban Authors: Jonathan Ensor, Heidi Tuhkanen, Michael Boyland, Albert Salamanca, ... Ladylyn Lim Mangada Abstract: There are increasing calls for transformation to be considered as a means to address the effects of social, cultural and political conditions on vulnerability when resilience is applied in practice. Yet transformation does not necessarily lead to more equitable social conditions. Here, we draw on the analytical framework of political capabilities to reveal aspects of the underlying politics of transformation. Our focus is on the relocation of communities in Tacloban, Philippines following Typhoon Haiyan, as an example of a deliberate transformation enacted as part of an integrated development and disaster risk reduction plan. A household survey, focus group discussions and individual interviews are applied to rank households in terms of their perception of household resilience four years after the disaster. Analysis of the drivers and consequences of differentiation reveals an uneven distribution of resilience among residents, with many facing difficulties despite a focus on livelihoods embedded in the relocation plan. While some were able to leverage pre-existing human and social capital, others found that the shift from coastal livelihoods left them struggling to find a valued role. Relocation reinforced underlying subjectivities with new layers of meaning, reflecting experiences of success and failure in adjusting to a more commercial culture and cash economy. The plan sought improvement through commercial opportunities, reflecting the authority and worldview of dominant city and international stakeholders. While the deliberate transformation that followed sought to be just in the distribution of risk and opportunity, poorer residents lacked the political capability to influence the relocation narrative, which in turn overlooked histories of marginalization and the lived experience of the poor. The case highlights the significance of engaging political capabilities if transformations are to support those in vulnerable communities to make valued life choices. 11. Title: Developing educational and vocational aspirations through international child sponsorship: Evidence from Kenya, Indonesia, and Mexico Authors: Phillip H. Ross, Paul Glewwe, Daniel Prudencio, Bruce Wydick Abstract: The role of aspirations in facilitating movement out of poverty is a subject of increasing research in development economics. Previous work finds positive impacts from international child sponsorship on educational attainment, employment, and adult income. This paper seeks to ascertain whether the impacts of child sponsorship on educational outcomes may occur through elevated aspirations among sponsored children. Using an age-eligibility rule applied during program rollout to identify causal effects, we study whether international child sponsorship increases educational and vocational aspirations among a sample of 2022 children in Kenya, Indonesia, and Mexico. While effects are heterogeneous, and strongest in Kenya, we find that, averaging over the three countries, sponsorship increased indices of self-esteem (0.25sd), optimism (0.26sd), aspirations (0.29sd), and expected years of completed education (0.43 years). We find that sponsorship increases actual grade completion by 0.56 among children at the time of the survey, and mediation analysis suggests that the impact of sponsorship on aspirations is likely to mediate higher levels of grade completion. Our results contribute to a growing body of evidence indicating that the positive impacts of child sponsorship stem partly through elevating aspirations. More generally, our research contributes to a larger literature suggesting that the alleviation of internal constraints among the poor is a strong complement to addressing their external constraints. 12. Title: Using Google data to measure the role of Big Food and fast food in South Africa’s obesity epidemic Authors: Steffen Otterbach, Hamid Reza Oskorouchi, Michael Rogan, Matin Qaim Abstract: Many developing countries face a rapid increase in overweight and obesity, inasmuch as the prevalence has now nearly converged to levels observed in high-income countries. Among other factors, the rise in obesity is caused by a nutrition transition involving higher affordability and consumption of heavily processed or otherwise unhealthy foods containing high amounts of added sugar, fat, and salt. This development is accompanied by the growing expansion of, and increased access to, large modern food retailers (Big Food) and fast food restaurants. Using a novel methodology, we are able to link proxies of exposure to modern food environments based on Google data with nationally representative micro-level nutrition and health data to examine the influence of Big Food and fast food on overweight and obesity. The micro-level data come from the National Income Dynamics Study (NIDS) in South Africa, a middle-income country with alarming and further rising levels of obesity. We find that proximity to Big Food retailers and fast food restaurants increases overweight and obesity significantly, even after controlling for income and other confounding factors. The results suggest that the shape of food environments needs higher policy attention to promote more healthy food choices, which is true in South Africa and beyond. 13. Title: Understanding inclusive innovation processes in agricultural systems: A middle-range conceptual model Authors: Elizabeth Hoffecker Abstract: Inclusive innovation as a strategy for inclusive development has received increased attention from development policymakers, practitioners, and scholars in recent years. What these processes entail in practical terms, however, remains contested and under-theorized. This paper addresses the scarcity of mid-level analysis and models of inclusive innovation processes within complex systems, which are needed to enable a coherent empirical research agenda and to inform program theory-building, implementation, and evaluation. Looking to smallholder-oriented agricultural systems in the Global South, where the majority of inclusive innovation implementation and research has been located, this paper proposes that it is possible to identify the essential features and causal logic of these processes to create an empirically-derived, middle-range model with cross-context applicability. Drawing on methods from realist evaluation and social inquiry, I conducted a theory-driven, cross-case synthesis of three studies of inclusive innovation processes in agricultural systems, with one case each from South America, Southeast Asia, and Africa. I find that despite significant diversity in project designs, facilitation approaches, and local contexts, the three inclusive innovation processes unfolded in strikingly similar ways, and that this modus operandi can be modeled as a middle-range theory of change. In each case, I find that a consistent set of activities and processes changed the local context for the inclusive innovation initiative. These altered contextual factors interacted with ongoing programmatic activities in consistent ways to trigger processes of social learning, social capital strengthening, collective cognition, and consensus formation, which acted as causal mechanisms responsible for producing the intermediate outcomes that led to technical, organizational, and institutional system innovation. The middle-range model enables cross-context insights into how inclusive innovation processes work and what capacities are needed to facilitate them. It can also guide the adaptive management and assessment of these processes, while offering testable hypotheses to guide future empirical work and evaluation. 14. Title: The role of ICT in collective management of public bads: The case of potato late blight in Ethiopia Authors: Katarzyna Cieslik, Francesco Cecchi, Elias Assefa Damtew, Shiferaw Tafesse, ... Cees Leeuwis Abstract: What is the role of Information and Communication Technology in the collective management of public bads? We study epidemics of late blight in potato as a collective action challenge in Oromia, Ethiopia. As a highly infectious, air-borne disease, potato late blight represents a public bad: it is non-excludable and non-rival. Managing public bads is a major policy challenge in Ethiopia due to structural inefficiencies and resource constraints to formal interventions. Dispersed rural farmers lack capacity and infrastructure to maintain communication flows that are key for effective collective action. We introduce an experimental, framed, public bads game where randomly selected groups of potato farmers are presented with a collective action dilemma whether to invest in a joint initiative to control late blight (fungicide spraying) or to suffer productivity loss if the threshold is missed. We also manipulate the ICT-mediated communication variable by providing access to a smartphone-based group communicator to a random sub-sample of the participants. We find that collective action problems do occur and participants tend to free-ride on the efforts of others. We show that ICT-mediated communication has a statistically significant positive effect on cooperative behavior, disease control, returns on investment and game winnings. Our qualitative analysis of the voice chats provides evidence that farmers use ICT to: (1) facilitate complex coordination, (2) establish collective norms, (3) detect and pressure 'free riders', and (4) manage reputation to increase trust. This paper complements the existing literature on public bads by studying real-life stakeholders in a real-life collective action challenge. It contributes to the literature on the contested topic of 'ICTrevolution' and its supposed transforming effect on African agriculture. From the point of view of policy, we draw attention to the pivotal importance of improving communication infrastructure in rural regions of Ethiopia, and the opportunities to scale collective action interventions through ICT. 15. Title: The role of institutional entrepreneurs and informal land transactions in Mexico City’s urban expansion Authors: Beth Tellman, Hallie Eakin, Marco A. Janssen, Felipe de Alba, B.L. Turner II Abstract: Informal urban expansion, or conversion of land to urban land uses, outpaces formal urbanization in the developing world. Understanding why this informality exists and persists is essential to counteract characterizations that it is chaotic and ungovernable. This research examines who shapes the informal arrangements developed to meet unmet housing needs that expand the urban footprint, from social housing projects to concentrated squatting in Mexico City metropolis from 2000 to 2016. Institutional analysis elucidates the distribution of payoffs in the “action situation” where decisions about urban land are made, and among “institutional entrepreneurs”, actors that repeatedly evade or alter formal rules or create new rules of urban land regulation. We use interview data regarding the distribution of costs and benefits among 54 actors involved in recent informal urban expansion to provide low- and middle-income housing (2000–2016) to identify potential leverage points for institutional change. We describe four types of informal urban land transactions: i) urbanizing individual plots of land, ii) flipping or subdividing land into multiple parcels, iii) invading land, and iv) manipulating social and public housing developments. We find institutional entrepreneurs—intermediaries, developers, and politicians—disproportionately benefit from and reinforce unplanned urban expansion. These entrepreneurs provide housing for the urban poor, but with social and environmental costs, including exploitation of informal settlers and urbanization of conservation land and loss of environmental services. Disaggregating informality into its component pervasive institutions and analyzing the distribution of payoffs in and beyond Mexico City provides insights about governance for urban sustainability. 16. Title: Contract farming as partial insurance Authors: Marc F. Bellemare, Yu Na Lee, Lindsey Novak Abstract: A core result of contract theory is that contracts can help transfer risk from one party to another, the latter insuring the former. We test this prediction and explore the mechanism behind it in the context of contract farming, the economic institution wherein a processor contracts the production of a commodity to a grower. Specifically, we look at whether participation in contract farming is associated with lower levels of income variability in a sample of 1,200 households in Madagascar. Relying on a framed field experiment aimed at eliciting respondent marginal utility of participation in contract farming for identification in a selection-on-observables design, we find that participation in contract farming is associated with a 0.20-standard deviation decrease in income variability. Using mediation analysis to look at the mechanism behind this finding, we find support for the hypothesis that fixed-price contracts—which transfer all price risk from the grower to the processor—explain the reduction in income variability associated with contract farming. Because the assumption that makes our selection-on-observables design possible also satisfies the conditional independence assumption, we estimate propensity score matching and doubly robust weighted regression estimators, the results of which show that our core results are robust and that participation in contract farming would likely be more beneficial for those households that do not participate than for those who do. Our findings thus support the notion that, in a context where formal insurance markets fail, contracts can serve as partial insurance mechanisms. 17. Title: Informal mhealth at scale in Africa: Opportunities and challenges Authors: Kate Hampshire, Tawonga Mwase-Vuma, Kassahun Alemu, Albert Abane, ... Adetayo Kasim Abstract: The extraordinary global growth of digital connectivity has generated optimism that mobile technologies can help overcome infrastructural barriers to development, with ‘mobile health’ (mhealth) being a key component of this. However, while ‘formal’ (top-down) mhealth programmes continue to face challenges of scalability and sustainability, we know relatively little about how health-workers are using their own mobile phones informally in their work. Using data from Ghana, Ethiopia and Malawi, we document the reach, nature and perceived impacts of community health-workers’ (CHWs’) ‘informal mhealth’ practices, and ask how equitably these are distributed. We implemented a mixed-methods study, combining surveys of CHWs across the three countries, using multi-stage proportional-to-size sampling (N = 2197 total), with qualitative research (interviews and focus groups with CHWs, clients and higher-level stake-holders). Survey data were weighted to produce nationally- or regionally-representative samples for multivariate analysis; comparative thematic analysis was used for qualitative data. Our findings confirm the limited reach of ‘formal’ compared with ‘informal’ mhealth: while only 15% of CHWs surveyed were using formal mhealth applications, over 97% reported regularly using a personal mobile phone for work-related purposes in a range of innovative ways. CHWs and clients expressed unequivocally enthusiastic views about the perceived impacts of this ‘informal health’ usage. However, they also identified very real practical challenges, financial burdens and other threats to personal wellbeing; these appear to be borne disproportionately by the lowest-paid cadre of health-workers, especially those serving rural areas. Unlike previous small-scale, qualitative studies, our work has shown that informal mhealth is already happening at scale, far outstripping its formal equivalent. Policy-makers need to engage seriously with this emergent health system, and to work closely with those on the ground to address sources of inequity, without undermining existing good practice. 18. Title: The power paradigm in practice: A critical review of developments in the Zambian electricity sector Authors: Kate Bayliss, Gabriel Pollen Abstract: Sub-Saharan Africa lags behind the rest of the world in electricity access and consumption. Infrastructure deficiencies are framed in terms of a “financing gap”, with policy oriented around attracting global private capital. Recent calls for increased private infrastructure investment follow three decades of market-oriented sector reforms. This paper explores the way that this standard policy paradigm has unfolded in Zambia. Drawing on the Systems of Provision approach we focus on three core interconnected segments of the electricity system: the performance of the state utility, Zesco; private sector participation and cost-recovery pricing. The paper shows that Zesco has run into major difficulties since 2015 due to a crisis in hydro resources and adverse currency movements. In line with the policy paradigm, the utility has signed up to a number of agreements with international independent power producers (IPPs) to diversify power sources, and tariffs have been raised to improve Zesco’s financial situation. However, closer inspection reveals contradictions, biases and inconsistencies in this standard policy package when applied in practice. Zesco’s acutely debilitating financial position is a relatively recent occurrence. Short-term fluctuations in hydro power, for which intermittent back-up is needed, have instead been addressed with new decades-long contracts for fossil fuel generation. IPPs have provided generous returns for foreign investors but have created long-term, dollar-denominated liabilities for Zesco, contributing to a weakening financial position. Tariffs have been raised but households cannot afford to pay a price that covers Zesco’s increased costs. The proliferation of IPPs appears to have worsened the situation.The paper shows that energy sector policies organised around the entry of private capital are problematic and likely to contribute to a dynamic of unequal global capital accumulation. Greater attention is needed to social equity, with policies oriented around domestic circumstances and the specific challenges faced. 19. Title: Is the agricultural sector cursed too? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa Authors: Elizavetta Dorinet, Pierre-André Jouvet, Julien Wolfersberger Abstract: Extractive and agricultural resources do not have the same impact on poverty reduction and can compete with each other. We examine how extractive resource windfalls affect agricultural productivity, measured as the amount of output per worker in the agricultural sector. This is important since agricultural productivity is a key element of structural transformation and poverty reduction. To do this, we exploit a panel dataset of 38 countries over 1991-2016 and construct a country-specific commodity price index that captures resource-related gains and losses in aggregate disposable income. We find that an increase in the commodity price index leads to a drop in agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan economies. Among the possible mechanisms to explain this result, our findings highlight the lack of spillovers across sectors and the low level of agricultural investment in autocratic regimes, both related to the exploitation of extractive resources. We also find that higher agricultural productivity is positively associated with the release of workers towards manufacturing and services, confirming its importance for structural transformation. 20. Title: “We live and we do this work”: Women waste pickers’ experiences of wellbeing in Ahmedabad, India Authors: Josie Wittmer Abstract: This study explores women waste pickers’ perceptions and embodied experiences of wellbeing in Ahmedabad, India. Waste pickers are self-employed urban workers who collect and sell recyclable materials on an informal basis and experience an array of hazards, risks, stigmas, and exclusions in their everyday lives and livelihoods. The paper uses a fluid and multidimensional approach in understanding marginalized women workers’ wellbeing as relational, intersectional, and situated. The paper grounds its conceptualization of wellbeing in respondents’ occupational narratives and highlights the need for the hazardous conditions of this precarious livelihood to be understood in terms of women’s own relational priorities and intersectional identities. This study is based on a survey (n = 401), semi-structured interviews (n = 45), follow-up visits (n = 36), and a series of group workshops (n = 12) with women waste pickers in Ahmedabad between 2016 and 2018. I engage a grounded and feminist approach, privileging women’s lived experiences as central in conceptualizing and addressing wellbeing in research and practice. Research findings engage with the overlapping and multiple dimensions comprising respondents’ everyday livelihood experiences, priorities of a ‘good life,’ and experiences of physical, mental, social, and spiritual wellbeing. The paper argues that by focusing on women waste pickers’ relational perceptions and priorities of wellbeing, we can understand waste picking work as an important asset for women in navigating everyday life and precarity in the urban margins. The study thus foregrounds women waste pickers’ understandings of the benefits and importance of this livelihood and discusses implications of these findings in the context of broader structural oppressions, constraints, and changes to urban governance that inform respondents’ everyday exclusions in various urban spaces and contexts. 21. Title: There’s Technology Improvement, but is there Economy-wide Energy Leapfrogging? A Country Panel Analysis Authors: Brantley Liddle, Hillard Huntington Abstract: Energy leapfrogging may have critical implications for a world that seeks to reduce its fossil fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions, and in which most future economic growth will be concentrated in rapidly growing, industrializing countries rather than in more mature economies. The current paper explores whether country-level data supports the conclusion that developing countries have lower energy intensities today than mature economies had when those mature economies had per capita income levels similar to developing countries now. We employ a broad sample of aggregate energy consumption, energy prices, and economic growth observations for 24 OECD and 34 non-OECD countries, spanning 1960–2016. Our price dataset is particularly novel in two ways: it includes (1) early industrializer-OECD observations from the 1960s and 1970s, and (2) a high number of recent (2007–2016) non-OECD observations. And thus, importantly, our work differs from previous estimates in the temporal comparison between mature and industrializing groups. Our study finds empirical support for energy leapfrogging, expressed as the energy intensity of income growth; we show that industrializing economies are adopting less energy-intensive, and by implication less polluting, economic activities when their income levels reach the same per-capita GDP levels as the more mature OECD countries did in previous decades. Importantly, our results depend upon (i) the controls placed on income levels to represent comparable stages of economic development, and (ii) the rules defining the temporal dimension for technology transfer. Our results have significant implications for researchers and policy analysts interested in economic development: those results support previous analysis, concluding not only that energy technologies are being transferred internationally, but that technologies are reducing the energy, and by implication the climate footprint of many developing countries. For example, a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggested that energy leapfrogging lowered the growth rate of energy consumption by about 30% in non-OECD countries. 22. Title: Can communal systems work? The effects of communal water provision on child health in Peru Authors: Joan Calzada, Susana Iranzo Abstract: Communal water organizations are widespread in many areas of developing countries, where local governments lack the resources to offer a minimum quality water service. However, these organizations have their own resource limitations and they additionally face the well-known problems associated with collective action. It is therefore unclear how effectively they can provide safe water, and the evidence available thus far is mixed. This paper analyzes the communal water organizations in Peru known as Juntas Administrativas de Servicios de Saneamiento (JASS). Using detailed household survey data, we empirically assess the differential impact of the JASS vis-à-vis public systems on two water-related child health outcomes: diarrhea and low birth weight. Our identification strategy exploits the legislative changes introduced in the 2000s and the arbitrary cut-off to classify the administrative sub-units of Peruvian municipalities (districts) in order to achieve exogenous variation in the type of water provision. We find that child diarrhea and low birth weight are significantly lower for households served by JASS in the districts located in the first Inca settlements where the pre-Columbian tradition of communal work, called Minka, has survived over centuries. We also show that in those districts the JASS have better governance (existence of their own rules, higher participation and accountability and a greater ability to obtain external support). These findings confirm the hypothesis that social capital and traditions foster cooperation among community members and are in line with recent works showing the importance of historically developed institutions in building social capital. More generally, our results suggest that communal organizations are not a one-fits-all solution, but rather their success depends crucially on the existence of mechanisms for overcoming the problems associated with collective action and the active involvement of the community. 23. Title: Systematic prioritisation of SDGs: Machine learning approach Authors: Atie Asadikia, Abbas Rajabifard, Mohsen Kalantari Abstract: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) framework is recognised throughout the world as a significant global agreement that has been adopted by all UN members. These goals represent a solution to sustainability problems dealing with nations’ economies, the natural environment and societies. However, making progress towards achieving these goals has not been as effective as originally intended. One of the major concerns is whether the SDGs will be achieved globally by 2030. Given the current damage wrought internationally by the COVID-19 pandemic, what is required is a coordinated global effort to achieve the SDGs. In this uncertain time, an era of corona virus outbreaks, when countries’ resources are finite and the deadline is fast approaching, prioritisation is necessary to allocate resources effectively. Several attempts have been made to prioritise SDGs by quantifying synergies. However, systematic methods to identify the magnitude of how to enhance the SDG index by improving individual SDGs is lacking. The objective of this paper is to identify synergetic SDGs using Boosted Regression Trees model which is a machine learning and data mining technique. In this study, contributions of all SDGs to form the SDG index are identified and a “what-if” analysis is conducted to understand the significance of goal scores. Findings show that SDG3, “Good health and well-being”, SDG4, “Quality education”, and SDG7, “Affordable and clean energy”, are the most synergetic goals, when their scores are >60%. The findings of this research will help decision-makers implement effective strategies and allocate resources by prioritising synergetic goals. 24. Title: Rural poverty, violence, and power: Rejecting and endorsing gender mainstreaming by food security NGOs in Armenia and Georgia Authors: Anna Jenderedjian, Anne C. Bellows Abstract: Gender mainstreaming (GM) is a strategy to empower women and promote gender equality. Using mixed-methods, this study draws on perspectives of non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in Armenia and Georgia to investigate NGOs’ resistance to, versus embrace of, GM in rural development and agriculture (electronic surveys, 215 NGOs; in-person interviews, 53 NGOs). Applying Bourdieu's theory of field-habitus, and intersectionality as critical praxis, we suggest that NGO leaders' social belonging along with field-related experiences explain how GM is understood and endorsed. In Armenia and Georgia, GM without intersectionality – the critical inclusion of rural women’s empowerment and equality -- enforces a reductionist interpretation of social classifications. Analysis reveals that social belonging of NGO leaders is a determinant for choosing constituents: female NGO leaders include rural women; male leaders, rural men. Field practices are pivotal for formal adoption of GM (e.g. adhering to funders’ requirements, affiliation to international NGOs, engagement in feminist activism). Concurrently, internalization of social power structures grounds NGO leaders' thinking about gender equality. Respondents express three distinct narratives on GM urgency depending upon leaders' gender and organizations' self-reported feminist orientation. First, only female leaders of self-identified feminist NGOs support GM necessity in response to economic and political shocks that reinforce patriarchal dynamics. For feminist NGOs, violence against women intertwines with other rural livelihood threats. Intersectionality as critical praxis guides addressing gender-based rural inequalities. Second, female leaders of non-feminist NGOs employ GM primarily to improve rural households' wellbeing by targeting women in unpaid and new ventures. Rural household vulnerability outweighs gender-based inequality concerns. Third, interviewed male NGO leaders do not identify as feminist. They grudgingly accept GM as funders’ burdensome requirement that, given other rural challenges, overemphasizes women’s equality and engagement. Beyond discussion of “how to do” gender or equality mainstreaming, this study emphasizes agents' identity and orientation. 25. Title: Land tenure and economic development: Evidence from Vietnam Authors: Hoang-Anh Ho Abstract: The relationship between private property rights and economic development has been investigated by numerous cross-country studies. Nevertheless, aggregate measures of private property rights have prevented cross-country studies in general from identifying the specific institutions governing private property rights that policy reforms should consider. The present paper investigates the impact of private property rights to land on economic development in a within-country setting, exploiting the 1993 nationwide land privatization in Vietnam. Using a random sample of more than 2000 rural communes across Vietnam, our study finds that the prevalence of private land tenure has a positive and significant impact on the level of economic development, as proxied by nighttime light intensity. The magnitude of the impact, however, is sensitive to both observed and unobserved confounding factors, and overall modest. The most plausible explanations for this modest impact are the lingering insecurity that land-use certificates can be revoked by the state and the relatively high taxes and time cost of land transactions in Vietnam. These lessons are of interest not only to Vietnam with its future land reform, but also to other developing countries contemplating the privatization of agricultural land. 26. Title: Large-scale farms in Zambia: Locational patterns and spillovers to smallholder agriculture Authors: Jann Lay, Kerstin Nolte, Kacana Sipangule Abstract: The accelerated growth of large-scale farming operations in developing countries, in particular Africa, has raised concerns that smallholders may be negatively affected. Drawing on nationally representative smallholder data and a census of large-scale farms in Zambia, this study investigates spillovers from large-scale farms to smallholders. First, we conceptually discuss potential spillovers from larg-scale farms to smallholders and sources of spillover heterogeneity. Second, we analyze the large-scale farm sector and its locational pattern. Large-scale farms operate in areas with good infrastructure and market access, i.e. in proximity to smallholders. Third, we adopt a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the spillovers of large-scale farms to smallholders’ area cultivated, access to fertilizer, and maize yields. We observe that the establishment of large-scale farms has little effect on average farm sizes of smallholders. However, we find a strong shift of crop portfolios towards maize among smallholders near recently established large-scale farms to the detriment of other staple crops. We do not find any spillovers on fertilizer adoption by smallholder farmers but large positive effects on maize yields. The locational pattern suggest that large-scale farms compete with smallholders for land. In sum, it is crucial not to overestimate the development potential of large-scale farms. Instead, immediate threats to smallholders need to be addressed, in particular through securing land tenure rights. Further, the mechanisms of spillovers need to be better understood in order to design infrastructure and agricultural extension policies that can complement and reinforce positive spillovers from large-scale farms and mitigate potential negative spillovers including environmental impacts. 27. Title: Measuring fuel poverty in tropical territories: A latent class model Authors: Dorothée Charlier, Bérangère Legendre, Olivia Ricci Abstract: There are well established strategies for measuring fuel poverty in developed countries based on heating factors correlated with household income (expenditure, heating restriction or cold houses), but they do not translate well to tropical regions where climatic conditions and socioeconomic contexts entail different energy use. Fuel poverty in tropical regions has never been defined. We propose a new framework for the identification of fuel-poor households based on Sen's capability approach. We employ latent class model (LCM) methodology to accurately assess fuel poverty in tropical areas using observable objective characteristics of decent, safe and healthy dwellings. This approach enables us to categorize households as fuel-poor or fuel-sufficient. It is also possible to extend the model further by considering the multi-dimensional phenomenon of fuel poverty. We find that the most deprived represent approximately 12% of the population, while 32% of the population is expected to belong to the fuel-sufficient class. An intermediate class encompassing 56% of the population represents vulnerable households that could easily be affected by an exogenous shock. Energy deprivation is much more complex and multidimensional than a binary phenomenon, implying that fuel poverty can be measured with different degrees of exposure. With this research, we enable policy makers to identify a target group of households that should be a top priority in fighting fuel poverty in tropical regions. 28. Title: Contextualizing certification and auditing: Soy certification and access of local communities to land and water in Brazil Authors: Almut Schilling-Vacaflor, Andrea Lenschow, Edward Challies, Benedetta Cotta, Jens Newig Abstract: The massive expansion of soy production in Brazil has contributed to a loss of access for local communities to land and water, particularly in highly dynamic frontier regions in the Cerrado. Soy certification standards like the Roundtable on Responsible Soy (RTRS) contain principles that are supposed to prevent such problems. In this paper, we examine the extent to which certification and auditing have served to protect local communities’ access to land and water in western Bahía state in the Cerrado’s Matopiba region. We draw on findings from field research in Brazil and western Bahía, 72 semi-structured interviews with corporate, state and civil society actors, and a systematic analysis of audit reports from RTRS-certified farms in Bahía. We find that auditing practices are not effective in protecting the rights and access of local communities to land and water due to three inter-related sets of factors: 1) the business-dominated nature of the drafting and content of the RTRS standard, 2) the structural limitations and everyday practices of auditing, and 3) domestic and local contextual factors in Brazil and western Bahía. This study aims to contribute to a re-thinking and re-assessment of certification and auditing practices and suggests that new approaches are required to govern global commodity chains in a more environmentally just way. We advocate for a locally embedded and community-sensitive perspective in research on certification and auditing, to complement previous research in the fields of critical political economy and sustainability governance. 29. Title: Aid or exploitation?: Food-for-work, cash-for-work, and the production of “beneficiary-workers” in Ethiopia and Haiti Authors: Lauren Carruth, Scott Freeman Abstract: The distinct subject positions of “beneficiaries” and “aid workers” pervade global aid vernacular, the grey development literature, and the field of development studies, but this binary obscures additional and vital forms of labor within the global aid industry. This analysis is based on the juxtaposition, comparison, and historical contextualization of two case studies drawing on two independent ethnographic research projects in the Somali Region of Ethiopia and southwestern Haiti. We find that although not designated either “employees” or “aid workers,” many beneficiaries are required to work to qualify for assistance: for example, food-for-work programs in Ethiopia and cash-for-work programs in Haiti both require beneficiaries to perform difficult manual labor with aid agencies to qualify for disbursements of food or cash. Accordingly, participants in these programs figure themselves workers and not the passive recipients of charity, and in both places, we find that participants critique the inadequacy of the wages for their work. Beneficiaries who work for aid are therefore what we call “beneficiary-workers:” they work within the aid industry, but are neither officially employed nor adequately compensated for their labor. Further, these beneficiary-workers are alienated both from the benefits of their labor and the means of designing or leading the aid programs on which they depend. Aid that requires beneficiary-workers’ labor is therefore not fundamentally designed to alleviate poverty or spur economic development; it is instead designed to discipline the poor and to valorize and justify the aid organizations that delimit their labor. By revealing the effects of food-for-work and cash-for-work project in these two places, and by highlighting the critiques of work-for-aid projects leveled by participants themselves, this analysis questions the ethics and appropriateness of food-for-work and cash-for-work projects. 30. Title: Analyzing community forest enterprises in the Maya Biosphere Reserve using a modified capitals framework Authors: Megan Butler Abstract: This paper introduces a modified community capitals framework for understanding the context in which community forest enterprises (CFEs) operate. The framework is applied to enterprises in the Maya Biosphere Reserve of Northern Guatemala through a comparative cross-case analysis. Data for the cross-case analysis were collected and triangulated via a variety of qualitative methods including document review supplemented by direct observation, and key informant interviews. The analysis details several differences in capitals between different enterprises in the reserve and details how enterprises have leveraged their resources to improve their capitals over time. This framework is of particular interest to sustainable development scholars and practitioners as it provides a means of analyzing local community-contexts focusing upon the resources that a community has at its disposal and how those resources can be used to develop their capital over time. These insights can be particularly helpful to development practitioners working to design interventions adapted to the unique challenges and opportunities faced by CFEs. 31. Title: Is there political elite capture in access to energy sources? Evidence from Indian households Authors: Somdeep Chatterjee, Debdatta Pal Abstract: A perverse consequence of having decentralized local governments in developing countries is the misuse of public office for private gains by local leaders. This leads to a type of political elite capture where resources are diverted from the rest of the society towards the ones with political power. A large body of literature has explored such elite capture in terms of illegally apportioning benefits of public welfare programs but the possibility of such elite capture in access to energy sources, such as electricity and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), has not been studied. Using a nationally representative household survey data from India, we find corroborative evidence that households with political connections, or elite households, are more likely to have access to energy utilities compared to the non-elites. We use linear and non-linear regressions as well as propensity score matching methods to estimate these effects by controlling for a host of observed demographic characteristics as well as time-invariant regional characteristics. We do not find evidence of illegal access to electricity among elites. However, for access to LPG we find that the major mediating channel is the black market. We also find heterogeneity in elite capture effects such that rural areas are more prone to capture and caste-based social networks facilitate leveraging the political connections better. Our findings have important policy implications and provide a rationale for recent government policies where direct transfer of welfare scheme benefits are being made to intended recipients, to avoid capture by bureaucrats and elites in a thrust to eliminate the role of middlemen. 32. Title: Taking power: Women’s empowerment and household Well-being in Sub-Saharan Africa Authors: Jeannie Annan, Aletheia Donald, Markus Goldstein, Paula Gonzalez Martinez, Gayatri Koolwal Abstract: This paper examines women’s power relative to that of their husbands in 23 Sub-Saharan African countries to determine how it affects women’s health, reproductive outcomes, children’s health and children’s education. The analysis uses a novel measure of women’s empowerment that is closely linked to classical theories of power, built from spouses’ often-conflicting reports of intrahousehold decision-making. We find, as in previous literature, that well-being outcomes for women and children are often best in scenarios where the woman’s power is recognized by her husband. We also find that women taking power—assigning themselves more decision-making power than their husbands do to them—is better for her reproductive health and children’s health, but is worse for emotional violence, compared to being given power by their husbands. The results show the conceptual and analytical value of intrahousehold contention over decision-making and expand the breadth of evidence on the importance of women’s power for economic development. 33. Title: Humanising agricultural extension: A review Authors: Brian R. Cook, Paula Satizábal, Jayne Curnow Abstract: Agricultural extension is booming. This interest is critical in the context of numerous pressing issues linked to agrarian change and rural development. Because of its importance, extension has attracted significant critique for its persistent exclusion of social and political factors. In this light, the history of extension can be thought of as a paradigm composed of approaches aimed at increasing agricultural production through the transfer of technologies from experts to farmers, and a series of criticisms of technology transfer as hampered by neglect of socio-political factors, a process labelled ‘rendering technical’. By reviewing criticisms of extension for its rendering of socio-political factors, we account for the rendering of power, place, and people. Equally important, we offer examples that consolidate critiques in order to open the possibility that humanized extension may more successfully support farmers. Our review is an effort to engage extensionists in order to speak about power to those who attempt to speak truth to power. 34. Title: Troubling the idealised pageantry of extractive conflicts: Comparative insights on authority and claim-making from Papua New Guinea, Mongolia and El Salvador Authors: Jennifer Lander, Pascale Hatcher, Denise Humphreys Bebbington, Anthony Bebbington, Glenn Banks Abstract: This article challenges simplified and idealised representation of conflicts between corporations, states and impacted populations in the context of extractive industries. Through comparative discussion of mineral extraction in Papua New Guinea, Mongolia and El Salvador, we argue that strategies of engagement over the terms of extraction vary significantly as a result of the interaction between relations of authority and recognition in the context of specific projects and the national political economy of mining. As mineral extraction impinges on their lands, livelihoods, territories and senses of the future, affected populations face the uncertain question of how to respond and to whom to direct these responses. Strategies vary widely, and can involve confrontation, litigation, negotiation, resignation, and patronage. These strategies are targeted at companies, investors, the national state, local government, multilateral institutions, and international arbitrators. We argue that the key to understanding how strategies emerge to target different types and scales of authority, lies ultimately with inherited geographies of state presence and strategic absence. This factor shapes the construction of “community” claim-making in relation to state and non-state authorities, and calculations regarding the relative utility of claiming rights or mobilizing relationships as a means of seeking redress, compensation or benefit sharing. In the context of plural opportunities for claim-making, we query whether plurality is more emancipatory or, ironically, more constricting for impacted populations. In response to this question, we argue that “community” strategies tend to be more effective where they remain linked in some way to the territorial and legislative structure of the national state. 35. Title: Impacts of improved biomass cookstoves on child and adult health: Experimental evidence from rural Ethiopia Authors: Daniel LaFave, Abebe Damte Beyene, Randall Bluffstone, Sahan T.M. Dissanayake, ... Michael Toman Abstract: We present the three-year impacts of an improved biomass cookstove on child and adult health in rural Ethiopia. The Mirt stove is designed to cook injera, the staple bread of Ethiopia estimated to consume 60 percent of household cooking energy and about half of all energy in the country. Though it would not be considered a fully “clean” cooking technology and is not used on a daily basis, Mirt’s documented fuelwood reduction potential and application to the highly energy-intensive baking of injera raises the question of whether it might offer health benefits to users. After near complete stove adoption during an initial one-year randomized controlled trial, 60 percent of treatment households continued to use the improved stoves three-years on and experience moderate reductions in hazardous airborne particulate matter. In a pre-specified analysis, we find treatment status is associated with a precisely estimated 0.3–0.4 standard deviation improvement in height-for-age of young children exposed to the stoves during their first years of life–a substantial effect with implications for greater health and well-being throughout the life course. This association notwithstanding, we find no changes in the respiratory symptoms or physical functioning of older children and adult cooks. Measures of fine particulate matter taken within study households remain over an order of magnitude higher than WHO standards, but follow a statistically significant gradient with respect to the observed height-for-age improvements. The results advance understanding of the health impacts of hazardous air pollution while also refining design and implementation options for interventions geared toward improving well-being in similar environments. 36. Title: Leveraging private investment to expand renewable power generation: Evidence on financial additionality and productivity gains from Uganda Authors: Benedict Probst, Lotte Westermann, Laura Díaz Anadón, Andreas Kontoleon Abstract: Effectively mitigating climate change entails a quick upscaling and redirection of electricity infrastructure investment towards clean power. Given that the bulk of greenhouse gas emissions increases until 2050 will come from low- and middle-income countries, finding cost-effective ways to mitigate climate change while meeting development targets is essential. However, recent research has shown some of the limitations of broad financing mechanisms, such as the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and existing carbon markets. This has resulted in a growing interest in designing novel investment support schemes, such as modifications of feed-in tariffs (FiTs) that may be more cost effective and better targeted towards particular outcomes when compared to traditional deployment subsidies or broad financing mechanisms. We evaluate the design and outcomes of one such novel support schemes: the GET FiT (Global Energy Transfer Feed-in Tariff) investment support scheme in Uganda, which has attracted ~ 453 million USD in private sector investment for 17 small-scale renewable energy projects (solar, hydro, bagasse) in only three years. Using financial modelling on detailed project-level data, we find that most projects were additional and would therefore not have been built without the subsidy. In addition, using firm-level panel data, we show that power outages hamper manufacturing performance in Uganda. In the absence of reliable outage-data for the entire Ugandan territory, we use nightlight variations to proxy changes in outages. We show that outages have declined substantially since the introduction of GET FiT. Yet, our analysis also demonstrates that programmes to incentivise additional renewable generation in developing countries funded internationally or domestically should liaise closely with grid authorities to ensure that supply does not outstrip demand. 37. Title: China’s green transformation through eco-industrial parks Authors: Douglas Zhihua Zeng, Lei Cheng, Lei Shi, Wilfried Luetkenhorst Abstract: China has achieved remarkable results in green transformation through the implementation of eco-industrial parks (EIPs). Why China chose EIPs as the main vehicle for green transformation? How did it do? Do the EIP interventions also contribute to the economic competitiveness? Most existing studies so far have revealed that EIPs can improve the environmental performance, however, few studies examined their impact on economic competitiveness. This paper intends to systematically analyze China’s EIP programs, and examine whether the EIP interventions have improved both their environmental and competitiveness performances as well as the correlation of these two dimensions, through empirical studies based on multiple data sources. The results largely verify the effects of both environmental and competitiveness improvements. Further correlation analysis based on a small sample, however, shows there exists a more complex relationship between competitiveness performance and environmental performance. The paper also identifies the key lessons learned in implementing China’s green transformation strategy through EIPs. The authors challenge the conventional wisdom that investing in green technologies and ensuring compliance with eco-industrial standards often leads to cost increases and loss of economic competitiveness for both individual firms and industrial zones as a whole. The findings strengthen the evidence base for Chinese policy-makers and the business case for entrepreneurs when considering green investments. 38. Title: COVID-19 and armed conflict Authors: Tobias Ide Abstract: This article studies the impact of COVID-19 on armed conflict. The pandemic has significant health, economic and political effects. These can change the grievances and opportunity structures relevant for armed conflicts to either increase or decrease conflict risks. I analyse empirical evidence from Afghanistan, Colombia, India, Iraq, Libya, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand and Yemen from the first six months of 2020. Results suggest that COVID-19 provides little opportunities for health diplomacy and cooperation, but it also has not yet driven grievances to a level where they became relevant for armed conflicts. Four countries have encountered temporary declines in armed conflicts, mostly due to strategic decisions by governments or rebels to account for impeded logistics and to increase their popular support. Armed conflict levels have increased in five countries, with conflict parties exploiting either state weakness or a lack of (international) attention due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a worrisome trend given the tremendous impacts of armed conflict on human security and on the capabilities of countries to deal with health emergencies. 39. Title: Household response to an extreme shock: Evidence on the immediate impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on economic outcomes and well-being in rural Uganda Authors: Mahreen Mahmud, Emma Riley Abstract: We provide evidence on the economic and well-being impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on a sample of households in rural Uganda. Our sample consists of 1,277 households randomly drawn from 114 rural villages in western Uganda and surveyed in-person in early March 2020, just before the lockdown. We followed up with this sample in May 2020, reaching over 85% of them by phone. We find a large decline of 60% in household non-farm income due to household enterprise profits and labour income being almost wiped-out post the lockdown. Households respond to this loss of income in three key ways. One, there is a 40% decrease in food expenditure per adult equivalent. Two, they use up nearly 50% of their savings and borrow more, but have not yet liquidated their fixed assets or sold livestock. Three, they increase total household labour supply to household farm and livestock, more than making up for the decline in supply to enterprises and labour outside the household. We find a decrease in well-being as a result of this: there is an increase in the likelihood of missing a meal, a decline in reported satisfaction with quality of life, a higher likelihood of having a major argument with their spouse and an increase in perceived frequency of intimate partner violence against women in the village. The negative effects of the lockdown are greater for households that were wealthier at baseline, since these households were more reliant on enterprise and salaried income. These results were one of the first to show a large negative impact of the lockdown for a rural population. Our findings are important to policy makers in Uganda and other developing countries as they suggest income and consumption support is needed for rural households. 40. Title: Covid-19 vs. Ebola: Impact on households and small businesses in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo Authors: Nik Stoop, Sébastien Desbureaux, Audacieux Kaota, Elie Lunanga, Marijke Verpoorten Abstract: In April 2020, the Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo was facing two major infectious disease outbreaks: Covid-19 and Ebola Virus Disease (EVD). We highlight large differences in the socioeconomic impact of these two outbreaks. The data come from a phone survey that we conducted in the period May-July 2020 with 637 households and 363 small firms from a megacity and two rural communes in the province of North Kivu. While 3,470 EVD cases and 2,287 EVD deaths were confirmed since August 2018, self-reported impacts of EVD on revenues, access to food and behavior were limited. In contrast, only 251 Covid-19 cases were reported as of July 22nd but respondents reported sizable effects on livelihoods, especially in the large urban hub, and in part driven by substantial job losses. Our results show that different infectious disease outbreaks can have very different effects, largely unrelated to case numbers of the disease. Moderately lethal but highly transmissible viruses such as Covid-19 can trigger a steep economic downturn, especially in areas with high economic interconnectedness, reflecting both national and international policies to contain the pandemic. 41. Title: Jobs’ amenability is not enough: The role of household inputs for safe work under social distancing in Latin American cities Authors: Lucila Berniell, Daniel Fernandez Abstract: The recent literature has emphasized the role of occupations in quantifying the amount of telework possible under social distancing measures during the COVID-19 outbreak. However, telework requires not only a teleworkable occupation but also household inputs related to basic infrastructure (internet connection and other housing services) and time availability. We use a recent household survey that includes rich information for large urban areas in 11 Latin American countries and we find that these household inputs are not available for more vulnerable workers. This introduces additional sources of inequality in the possibility of working from home, aside from those imposed by occupations, as well as reinforces the association between economic development and the share of teleworkable jobs. We also analyze the profiles of workers in high personal-proximity jobs, which imply a higher exposure to the virus, and we find important additional sources of inequality. In particular, workers in jobs with higher exposure to the coronavirus also have other health risks, implying that this type of inequality should be carefully taken into account when designing deconfinement measures. 42. Title: Too little but not too late: nowcasting poverty and cash transfers’ incidence during COVID-19’s crisis Authors: Matias Brum, Mauricio De Rosa Abstract: The economic crisis triggered by COVID-19 has caused a world-wide economic downturn, and the deepest GDP contraction in Latin America since the beginning of the XXth century. One of the most dramatic outcomes of the crisis is the increase in poverty, but its extent will remain unknown until household income data is collected and analyzed. We propose a simple approach to provide early estimates, micro-simulating the short-run effect of the crisis on the poverty rate. It combines household level micro-data, estimates on the feasibility of working from home, information on key public policies (e.g., cash-transfers, unemployment insurance), and forecasts of GDP contraction. This approach, which can be easily adapted and applied to different countries, allows to nowcast the current poverty level and the poverty-reducing effect of public policies, while providing full micro-macro consistency between heterogeneous impacts on households and the shock to aggregate GDP. Moreover, it enables to estimate the effect on informal and self-employed workers, of utmost importance in developing countries. We illustrate the methodology with an application for Uruguay, finding that during the first full trimester of the crisis, the poverty rate grew by more than 38%, reaching 11.8% up from 8.5%. Moreover, cash transfers implemented by the government in the period had a positive but very limited effect in mitigating this poverty spike, which could be neutralized with additional transfers worth under 0.5% of Uruguay’s annual GDP. 43. Title: Does the COVID-19 pandemic threaten global solidarity? Evidence from Germany Authors: Sebastian H. Schneider, Jens Eger, Martin Bruder, Jörg Faust, Lothar H. Wieler Abstract: The global COVID-19 pandemic poses challenges to the economy, politics and public health systems of developed and developing countries alike. However, the latter are less well placed to cope with adverse effects. In particular, important advances towards sustainable development might be reversed. Tackling the pandemic and its effects therefore requires global cooperation as well as solidarity in the form of development assistance. Yet, support for development assistance among donor publics might be dampened by individual health-related and economic worries as well as decreasing trust in government during the pandemic. Against this backdrop, we investigate the possible effect of pandemic-induced worries on public support for development assistance as well as the moderating role of moral considerations and trust in government. Drawing on literature on aid attitudes, and using survey data for Germany provided by the COVID-19 Snapshot Monitoring (COSMO) project from April 2020 (N = 1,006), our analyses show that neither health-related nor economic worries are associated with less support for providing development assistance during the first wave of the pandemic. However, we observe a marginal interaction between health-related worries and trust in government in predicting support for development assistance. For those with high levels of trust in government the effect of worry regarding the loss of friends or relatives on support for development assistance is positive, whereas it is close to zero for those with low levels of trust. We conclude that at the peak of the first wave of the pandemic there was little need for concern by policy-makers endorsing development assistance as neither form of worry correlated negatively with public support for development assistance and trust was high. However, when worries recur and trust in government simultaneously decreases, public support for global solidarity may wane. 44. Title: Examining the economic impact of COVID-19 in India through daily electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity Authors: Robert C.M. Beyer, Sebastian Franco-Bedoya, Virgilio Galdo Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted economic activity in India. Adjusting policies to contain transmission while mitigating the economic impact requires an assessment of the economic situation in near real-time and at high spatial granularity. This paper shows that daily electricity consumption and monthly nighttime light intensity can proxy for economic activity in India. Energy consumption is compared with the predictions of a consumption model that explains 90 percent of the variation in normal times. Energy consumption declined strongly after a national lockdown was implemented on March 25, 2020 and remained a quarter below normal levels throughout April. It recovered subsequently, but electricity consumption remained lower even in September. Not all states and union territories have been affected equally. While electricity consumption halved in some, it declined very little in others. Part of the heterogeneity is explained by the prevalence of COVID-19 infections, the share of manufacturing, and return migration. During the national lockdown, higher COVID-19 infection rates at the district level were associated with larger declines in nighttime light intensity. Without effectively reducing the risk of a COVID-19 infection, voluntary reductions of mobility will hence prevent a return to full economic potential even when restrictions are relaxed. Together, daily electricity consumption and nighttime light intensity allow monitoring economic activity in near real-time and high spatial granularity. 45. Title: The dangers of performative scientism as the alternative to anti-scientific policymaking: A critical, preliminary assessment of South Africa’s Covid-19 response and its consequences Authors: Seán M. Muller Abstract: At the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic South Africa was praised for decisive political leadership based on scientific advice and the strictness of the measures it imposed to limit domestic spread of the virus. This paper critically examines the South African response through two conceptual frameworks. The first frames an optimal policy response as a solution to an intertemporal welfare-optimisation problem. The need for governments to balance epidemiological considerations and public health measures with the negative consequences of non-pharmaceutical interventions to limit transmission is particularly acute in developing countries. The second considers the use of scientific evidence and expertise through the lens of scientism – undue deference to science. The South African government erred towards drastic action in the face of predictions by some scientific advisors of a catastrophe, but initially without a clear, public long-term plan. Its lockdown has caused serious economic and societal harm across a range of measures. But these costs have not been matched by proportional benefits in health system preparedness or, based on evidence three months into the epidemic, a definitive improvement in expected long-term epidemic outcomes. This failure, and the questionably confident basis for the original lockdown decision, has been obscured by the government’s performative scientism – a public performance of deference to science – even in the absence of transparent decision-making. One consequence was a slower correction of strategy than merited by evidence of limited benefits and high costs of the lockdown. Another was an unwillingness to admit and explain errors after the fact. The latter, combined with the convincingness of the initial performance undermined the behavioural dimension of policy – leading to beliefs among citizens that confounded efforts by the state to adapt its policy stance through reopening schools, reducing the stringency of clinical guidelines and resuming various economic activities while nevertheless observing basic social distancing precautions. 46. Title: COVID-19 and conflict Authors: Jeffrey R. Bloem, Colette Salemi Abstract: What does the threat of and the policy response to the coronavirus pandemic mean for inter-group conflict worldwide? We examine time series trends for different types of conflict and evaluate discernible changes taking place as global awareness of COVID-19 spread. At the country level, we examine changes in trends following policy responses, such as lockdowns, curfews, or ceasefires. We specifically examine violent conflict events (e.g., battles, remote violence and bombings, and violence against civilians) as well as civil demonstrations (e.g., protests and riots) using data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED) project. Globally we see a relatively short-term decline in conflict, mostly driven by a sharp decrease in protest events, that has since recovered to pre-pandemic levels. Critical heterogeneity at the country level, however, persists. Finally, context-specific details challenge robust causal inference identifying the specific relationship between policy responses and conflict. 47. Title: Mobilising urban knowledge in an infodemic: Urban observatories, sustainable development and the COVID-19 crisis Authors: Michele Acuto, Ariana Dickey, Stephanie Butcher, Carla-Leanne Washbourne Abstract: Along with disastrous health and economic implications, COVID-19 has also been an epidemic of misinformation and rumours - an ‘infodemic’. The desire for robust, evidence-based policymaking in this time of disruption has been at the heart of the multilateral response to the crisis, not least in terms of supporting a continuing agenda for global sustainable development. The role of boundary-spanning knowledge institutions in this context could be pivotal, not least in cities, where much of the pandemic has struck. ‘Urban observatories’ have emerged as an example of such institutions; harbouring great potential to produce and share knowledge supporting sustainable and equitable processes of recovery. Building on four ‘live’ case studies during the crisis of institutions based in Johannesburg, Karachi, Freetown and Bangalore, our research note aims to capture the role of these institutions, and what it means to span knowledge boundaries in the current crisis. We do so with an eye towards a better understanding of their knowledge mobilisation practices in contributing towards sustainable urban development. We highlight that the crisis offers a key window for urban observatories to play a progressive and effective role for sustainable and inclusive development. However, we also underline continuing challenges in these boundary knowledge dynamics: including issues of institutional trust, inequality of voices, collective memory, and the balance between normative and advisory roles for observatories. 48. Title: Gender inequality during the COVID-19 pandemic: Income, expenditure, savings, and job loss Authors: Hai-Anh H. Dang, Cuong Viet Nguyen Abstract: The COVID-19 outbreak has brought unprecedented disruptions to the global economies and has led to income loss and high unemployment rates. But scant, if any, evidence exists on gender gaps in economic outcomes such as income, expenditure, savings, and job loss in a multi-country setting. We investigate the impacts of COVID-19 on gender inequality in these outcomes using data from a six-country survey that covers countries in different geographical locations and at various income levels. Our findings suggest that women are 24 percent more likely to permanently lose their job than men because of the outbreak. Women also expect their labor income to fall by 50 percent more than men do. Perhaps because of these concerns, women tend to reduce their current consumption and increase savings. Factors such as the different participation rates in work industries for men and women may take an important part in explaining these gender gaps. Our estimates also point to country heterogeneity in these gender differences that is likely due to varying infection rates and shares of women in the labor force. 49. Title: How does Covid-19 affect urban slums? Evidence from settlement leaders in India Authors: Adam Michael Auerbach, Tariq Thachil Abstract: Slum settlements have received significant attention for their vulnerabilities to the spread of Covid-19. To mitigate risks of transmission, and alleviate economic distress associated with containment measures, public health experts and international agencies are calling for community-driven solutions that harness local participation. In slum settlements, such approaches will encounter the informal slum leaders present across cities of the Global South. How are slum leaders positioned to address the health and livelihood threats of the pandemic within their neighborhoods? What problem-solving activities, if any, have they performed for residents during the pandemic? What factors shape success in those efforts? To answer these questions, we conducted a phone survey of 321 slum leaders across 79 slum settlements in two north Indian cities. The survey was conducted in April and May 2020, at the height of India’s stringent national lockdown in response to the virus. Our survey reveals striking continuities with pre-pandemic politics. First, slum leaders persist in their problem-solving roles, even as they shift their efforts towards requesting urgently needed government relief (particularly food rations). Second, slum leaders vary in their reported ability to gather information about relief schemes, make claims, and command government responsiveness. The factors that inform the effectiveness of slum leaders during ‘normal times’, notably their education and degree of embeddedness in party networks, continue to do so during the lockdown. Slum leader reliance on partisan networks raises concerns regarding the inclusiveness of their efforts. Finally, slums are not uniformly challenged in maintaining social distancing. Pre-pandemic disparities in infrastructural development fragment the degree to which residents must depart from social distancing guidelines to secure essential services. 50. Title: Finding out fast about the impact of Covid-19: The need for policy-relevant methodological innovation Authors: Hossain Zillur Rahman, Imran Matin, Nicola Banks, David Hulme Abstract: In this viewpoint we explore one joint research initiative in Bangladesh to illustrate how methodological innovations using mobile phone technologies and pre-existing survey databases can generate rapid and insightful data on the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic with significant policy influence. Situating this innovation within theoretical and methodological antecedents for rapid appraisal, we show how strong local ownership can facilitate innovation, rapid research and strong policy engagement amidst even the most difficult research conditions. Such rapid surveys and analysis must remain a research priority in times of crisis. Academic researchers in partner organisations further afield must ask important questions around how they can best support such locally-led research initiatives: in preparing for, analysing or writing up the research or in joining efforts to communicate them to wider communities of policy-makers and practitioners globally. 51. Title: Institutional pluralism and water user behavior in rural Africa Authors: Johanna Koehler, Patrick Thomson, Susanna Goodall, Jacob Katuva, Rob Hope Abstract: The Sustainable Development Goal of providing everyone with safe and reliable drinking water services combines a moral imperative with an entrepreneurial opportunity. We examine water user behavior in the face of institutional change brought about by a professional service provider maintaining rural water infrastructure in Kenya. We ask (1) which factors are associated with households and waterpoint user groups contracting a service provider that guarantees rapid repairs; (2) how do factors vary between different management cultures defined by cultural theory of risk; and (3) can the professional service provider address the risk factors? By applying the cultural theory of risk framework, we capture the institutional diversity of community, public, private and failed management on the ground in dealing with operational, financial, institutional and environmental risks. To identify the factors associated with institutional change towards a pluralist arrangement – enabled by the professional maintenance service provider incubated in rural Kenya – we model data from 1215 households at actively managed handpumps with sensor data from daily handpump usage and community responses to this entrepreneurial approach. The predictors of behavior change of rural water users to commit to the new service provider include organizational factors of managing payments, affordability, and operational factors such as distance and water quality, which vary in importance across the management cultures. This learning can be harnessed to reduce risk and inform future policy and practice. As professional maintenance services for rural water infrastructure are emerging across Africa, which promise to increase value for rural water users, government, and investors through performance-based contracts, it is important for policymakers and implementers to understand which factors predict shifts in institutional behavior by water users. This research recommends seeking cooperative solutions across systems, where current policy effectively separates communities from the state or markets. 52. Title: Evaluating risk allocation and project impacts of sustainability-oriented water public–private partnerships in Southern California: A comparative case analysis Authors: Evgenia Nizkorodov Abstract: For the last 30 years, California has struggled to manage its water effectively due to demographic pressure, declining financial and technical support at the state and federal level, climatic stress, and outdated water management systems. Public-private partnerships (PPPs) may be uniquely positioned address these challenges through the private partner’s ability to mobilize resources, provide technical expertise, and share project risks. Yet, studies suggest that the private partner’s goal of maximizing revenue can reduce the quality of service provision and can marginalize low income populations. This paper clarifies the role of the private sector in bolstering sustainability and resilience by examining 1) the distribution of risks between public and private partners and 2) the economic, political, environmental, and social impacts of these partnership arrangements. This exploratory qualitative study utilizes interviews, observations, shadowing, and document analysis to compare 10 public–private partnerships in Southern California. This study evaluates PPP projects across the three dimensions of sustainability, paying careful attention to distributional impacts and feedbacks between environmental and human systems. The findings suggest that when carefully managed, PPPs can result in environmentally beneficial projects that diversify local water resources and improve efficiency of water utility operations. However, sustainability-oriented PPPs face a tension between profitability and public welfare due to the divergent goals of public and private partners. A complex permitting process and evolving regulations exacerbate this tradeoff through cost overruns and project delays. Risks to the public partner and ratepayers can be reduced through mutual agreement of project goals and benefits, robust contract structure, and the inclusion of end-users and affected stakeholders in project design and implementation. 53. Title: Corrective lenses for a myopic state: Unseeing coca or not unseeing comunidades negras in Colombia? Authors: Alexander Huezo, Gerardo Bazán Orobio Abstract: Colombia's Pacific region is a vast expanse of tropical forest that lies between the borders of Panama and Ecuador -the bulk of which is titled to Afro-descendant and Indigenous communities — increasingly subject to 'the illicit' and 'the illegal'. Coca cultivation, cocaine trafficking and gold mining are the principal activities framed as threats to the nation's security, biodiversity, and economic potential. Employing ethnographic evidence and critical geographic theory this article applies the notion of 'seeing like a state' (Scott, 1998) to the context of coca cultivation in southwest Colombia. It specifically theorizes how this mode of vision impacts Afro-descendant communities seeking legibility, sustainable peace and alternative development. This article argues that the corrective measure for this vision problem is not 'unseeing' illicit crops or other illegal activities but making rural Colombian communities legible in a way that they cannot be unseen. It features the insights of the leader of a comunidad negra (Afro-descendant community) who has managed various alternative developments projects and has witnessed the transformation of his community and others impacted by the recent coca boom in this region of Colombia. It frames these insights as part of the struggle for ethnic territorial rights throughout the Americas. 54. Title: Sisterhood partnerships for conflict-related sexual violence Authors: Alexandra Cosima Budabin, Natalie F. Hudson Abstract: This article examines partnerships to support development causes related to women, specifically in the area of gender security. Drawing from feminist international political economy and feminist security studies, this research investigates the gendered ways in which configurations led by NGOs and businesses use cause-related marketing models to build solidarity among women to address conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV). Through the concept of sisterhood partnerships, this article theorizes the nature of the relationships formed between female consumers in the North and female recipients in the South. A discussion of three sisterhood partnerships that address CRSV in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will reveal the specific and gendered ways in which businesses fuse neoliberal agendas in development and feminism by linking female consumers to female beneficiaries through notions of solidarity and empowerment. We argue that while sisterhood partnerships may bring the benefits of raising awareness and funds for CRSV, the reliance on consumer strategies for Northern audiences and economic empowerment models for Southern beneficiaries valorize individual actions that fail to effect broader social change. At stake, the notion that feminist “sisterhoods” between north and south are being co-opted by corporations and marketed in de-politicized ways that fail to address systemic concerns related to gender security and women’s emancipation. We find that these examples of “sisterhood” partnerships exhibit superficial engagement with local and global politics, empower their consumers and beneficiaries in limited ways, and draw upon gendered tropes of advocacy and charitable engagement while failing to address the collective and protection needs of a vulnerable population. This article contributes to surfacing neoliberal trends in development and feminism that hold implications for gender security. 55. Title: Demographic, health, and economic transitions and the future care burden Authors: Elizabeth M. King, Hannah L. Randolph, Maria S. Floro, Jooyeoun Suh Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has caused millions of infections and deaths worldwide, forced schools to suspend classes, workers to work from home, many to lose their livelihoods, and countless businesses to close. Throughout this crisis, families have had to protect, comfort and care for their children, their elderly and other members. While the pandemic has greatly intensified family care responsibilities for families, unpaid care work has been a primary activity of families even in normal times. This paper estimates the future global need for caregiving, and the burden of that need that typically falls on families, especially women. It takes into account projected demographic shifts, health transitions, and economic changes in order to obtain an aggregate picture of the care need relative to the potential supply of caregiving in low-, middle- and high-income countries. This extensive margin of the future care burden, however, does not capture the weight of that burden unless the quantity and quality of care time per caregiver are taken into account. Adjusting for care time given per caregiver, the paper incorporates data from time-use surveys, illustrating this intensive margin of the care burden in three countries that have very different family and economic contexts—Ghana, Mongolia, and South Korea. Time-use surveys typically do not provide time data for paid care services, so the estimates depend only on the time intensity of family care. With this caveat, the paper estimates that the care need in 2030 would require the equivalent of one-fifth to two-fifths of the paid labor force, assuming 40 weekly workhours. Using the projected 2030 mean wage for care and social service workers to estimate the hypothetical wage bill for these unpaid caregivers if they were paid, we obtain a value equivalent to 16 to 32 percent of GDP in the three countries. 56. Title: Is son preference disappearing from Bangladesh? Authors: M. Niaz Asadullah, Nazia Mansoor, Teresa Randazzo, Zaki Wahhaj Abstract: Historically, son preference has been widely prevalent in South Asia, manifested in the form of skewed sex ratios, gender differentials in child mortality, and worse educational investments in daughters versus sons. In the present study, we show, using data from a purposefully designed nationally representative survey for Bangladesh, that among women of childbearing age, son bias in stated fertility preferences has weakened and there is an emerging preference for gender balance. We examine a number of different hypotheses for the decline in son preference, including the increasing availability of female employment in the manufacturing sector, increased female education, and the decline of joint family living. Using survival analysis, we show that in contrast to stated fertility preferences, actual fertility decisions are still shaped by son preference.     $%'(,/1235>ÓÔÜíÜʻʻʻª›ŒxpcUG:Uh
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