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Volume 38, Issue 8, Aug 2018
1. Title: The Ethical Foundations of Risk Analysis.
Authors: Rozell, Daniel J.
Abstract: In the field of risk analysis, the normative value systems underlying accepted methodology are rarely explicitly discussed. This perspective provides a critique of the various ethical frameworks that can be used in risk assessments and risk management decisions. The goal is to acknowledge philosophical weaknesses that should be considered and communicated in order to improve the public acceptance of the work of risk analysts.
2. Title: A Framework to Understand Extreme Space Weather Event Probability.
Authors: Jonas, Seth; Fronczyk, Kassandra; Pratt, Lucas M.
Abstract: An extreme space weather event has the potential to disrupt or damage infrastructure systems and technologies that many societies rely on for economic and social well being. Space weather events occur regularly, but extreme events are less frequent, with a small number of historical examples over the last 160 years. During the past decade, published works have (1) examined the physical characteristics of the extreme historical events and (2) discussed the probability or return rate of select extreme geomagnetic disturbances, including the 1859 Carrington event. Here we present initial findings on a unified framework approach to visualize space weather event probability, using a Bayesian model average, in the context of historical extreme events. We present disturbance storm time (Dst) probability (a proxy for geomagnetic disturbance intensity) across multiple return periods and discuss parameters of interest to policymakers and planners in the context of past extreme space weather events. We discuss the current state of these analyses, their utility to policymakers and planners, the current limitations when compared to other hazards, and several gaps that need to be filled to enhance space weather risk assessments.
3. Title: On the Relationship between Safety and Decision Significance.
Authors: Borgonovo, Emanuele; Cillo, Alessandra; Smith, Curtis L.
Abstract: Risk analysts are often concerned with identifying key safety drivers, that is, the systems, structures, and components (SSCs) that matter the most to safety. SSCs importance is assessed both in the design phase (i.e., before a system is built) and in the implementation phase (i.e., when the system has been built) using the same importance measures. However, in a design phase, it would be necessary to appreciate whether the failure/success of a given SSC can cause the overall decision to change from accept to reject (decision significance). This work addresses the search for the conditions under which SSCs that are safety significant are also decision significant. To address this issue, the work proposes the notion of a ¸ importance measure. We study in detail the relationships among risk importance measures to determine which properties guarantee that the ranking of SSCs does not change before and after the decision is made. An application to a probabilistic safety assessment model developed at NASA illustrates the risk management implications of our work.
4. Title: Security Investment in Contagious Networks.
Authors: Hasheminasab, Seyed Alireza; Tork Ladani, Behrouz.
Abstract: Security of the systems is normally interdependent in such a way that security risks of one part affect other parts and threats spread through the vulnerable links in the network. So, the risks of the systems can be mitigated through investments in the security of interconnecting links. This article takes an innovative look at the problem of security investment of nodes on their vulnerable links in a given contagious network as a game theoretic model that can be applied to a variety of applications including information systems. In the proposed game model, each node computes its corresponding risk based on the value of its assets, vulnerabilities, and threats to determine the optimum level of security investments on its external links respecting its limited budget. Furthermore, direct and indirect nonlinear influences of a node's security investment on the risks of other nodes are considered. The existence and uniqueness of the game's Nash equilibrium in the proposed game are also proved. Further analysis of the model in a practical case revealed that taking advantage of the investment effects of other players, perfectly rational players (i.e., those who use the utility function of the proposed game model) make more cost effective decisions than selfish nonrational or semirational players.
5. Title: Lognormal Approximations of Fault Tree Uncertainty Distributions.
Authors: El Shanawany, Ashraf Ben; Ardron, Keith H.; Walker, Simon P.
Abstract: Fault trees are used in reliability modeling to create logical models of fault combinations that can lead to undesirable events. The output of a fault tree analysis (the top event probability) is expressed in terms of the failure probabilities of basic events that are input to the model. Typically, the basic event probabilities are not known exactly, but are modeled as probability distributions: therefore, the top event probability is also represented as an uncertainty distribution. Monte Carlo methods are generally used for evaluating the uncertainty distribution, but such calculations are computationally intensive and do not readily reveal the dominant contributors to the uncertainty. In this article, a closed form approximation for the fault tree top event uncertainty distribution is developed, which is applicable when the uncertainties in the basic events of the model are lognormally distributed. The results of the approximate method are compared with results from two sampling based methods: namely, the Monte Carlo method and the Wilks method based on order statistics. It is shown that the closed form expression can provide a reasonable approximation to results obtained by Monte Carlo sampling, without incurring the computational expense. The Wilks method is found to be a useful means of providing an upper bound for the percentiles of the uncertainty distribution while being computationally inexpensive compared with full Monte Carlo sampling. The lognormal approximation method and Wilks’s method appear attractive, practical alternatives for the evaluation of uncertainty in the output of fault trees and similar multilinear models.
6. Title: DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent Based Modeling and Simulation.
Authors: Zhang, Laobing; Khakzad, Nima; Reniers, Genserik; Landucci, Gabriele; Zhou, Jianfeng.
Abstract: Historical data analysis shows that escalation accidents, so called domino effects, have an important role in disastrous accidents in the chemical and process industries. In this study, an agent based modeling and simulation approach is proposed to study the propagation of domino effects in the chemical and process industries. Different from the analytical or Monte Carlo simulation approaches, which normally study the domino effect at probabilistic network levels, the agent based modeling technique explains the domino effects from a bottom up perspective. In this approach, the installations involved in a domino effect are modeled as agents whereas the interactions among the installations (e.g., by means of heat radiation) are modeled via the basic rules of the agents. Application of the developed model to several case studies demonstrates the ability of the model not only in modeling higher level domino effects and synergistic effects but also in accounting for temporal dependencies. The model can readily be applied to large scale complicated cases.
7. Title: Resilience Analysis of a Remote Offshore Oil and Gas Facility for a Potential Hydrocarbon Release.
Authors: Sarwar, Adnan; Khan, Faisal; Abimbola, Majeed; James, Lesley.
Abstract: Resilience is the capability of a system to adjust its functionality during a disturbance or perturbation. The present work attempts to quantify resilience as a function of reliability, vulnerability, and maintainability. The approach assesses proactive and reactive defense mechanisms along with operational factors to respond to unwanted disturbances and perturbation. This article employs a Bayesian network format to build a resilience model. The application of the model is tested on hydrocarbon release scenarios during an offloading operation in a remote and harsh environment. The model identifies requirements for robust recovery and adaptability during an unplanned scenario related to a hydrocarbon release. This study attempts to relate the resilience capacity of a system to the system's absorptive, adaptive, and restorative capacities. These factors influence predisaster and postdisaster strategies that can be mapped to enhance the resilience of the system.
8. Title: A Comprehensive Risk Analysis of Transportation Networks Affected by Rainfall Induced Multihazards.
Authors: Liu, Kai; Wang, Ming; Cao, Yinxue; Zhu, Weihua; Wu, Jinshan; Yan, Xiaoyong.
Abstract: Climate change and its projected natural hazards have an adverse impact on the functionality and operation of transportation infrastructure systems. This study presents a comprehensive framework to analyze the risk to transportation infrastructure networks that are affected by natural hazards. The proposed risk analysis method considers both the failure probability of infrastructure components and the expected infrastructure network efficiency and capacity loss due to component failure. This comprehensive approach facilitates the identification of high risk network links in terms of not only their susceptibility to natural hazards but also their overall impact on the network. The Chinese national rail system and its exposure to rainfall related multihazards are used as a case study. The importance of various links is comprehensively assessed from the perspectives of topological, efficiency, and capacity criticality. Risk maps of the national railway system are generated, which can guide decisive action regarding investments in preventative and adaptive measures to reduce risk.
9. Title: Toward an Application Guide for Safety Integrity Level Allocation in Railway Systems.
Authors: Ouedraogo, Kiswendsida Abel; Beugin, Julie; El Koursi, El Miloudi; Clarhaut, Joffrey; Renaux, Dominique; Lisiecki, Frederic.
Abstract: The work in the article presents the development of an application guide based on feedback and comments stemming from various railway actors on their practices of SIL allocation to railway safety related functions. The initial generic methodology for SIL allocation has been updated to be applied to railway rolling stock safety related functions in order to solve the SIL concept application issues. Various actors dealing with railway SIL allocation problems are the intended target of the methodology; its principles will be summarized in this article with a focus on modifications and precisions made in order to establish a practical guide for railway safety authorities. The methodology is based on the flowchart formalism used in CSM (common safety method) European regulation. It starts with the use of quantitative safety requirements, particularly tolerable hazard rates (THR). THR apportioning rules are applied. On the one hand, the rules are related to classical logical combinations of safety related functions preventing hazard occurrence. On the other hand, to take into account technical conditions (last safety weak link, functional dependencies, technological complexity, etc.), specific rules implicitly used in existing practices are defined for readjusting some THR values. SIL allocation process based on apportioned and validated THR values is finally illustrated through the example of “emergency brake” subsystems. Some specific SIL allocation rules are also defined and illustrated.
10. Title: Mitigating Litigating: An Examination of Psychosocial Impacts of Compensation Processes Associated with the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.
Authors: Ritchie, Liesel A.; Gill, Duane A.; Long, Michael A.
Abstract: During the past four decades, a number of social science scholars have conceptualized technological disasters as a social problem. More specifically, research in this arena has identified individual and collective stress as a secondary trauma of processes intended to provide compensation and economic relief from disasters in general and, more specifically, technological disasters. Based on data from a 2013 household telephone survey of 1,216 residents of coastal Alabama, this article examines the relationship between psychosocial stress and compensation processes related to the 2010 BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill. We examine involvement with claims, settlement, and litigation activities; vulnerability and exposure to the spill; ties to resources; resource loss and gain; perceptions of risk and recreancy; and intrusive stress and avoidance behaviors as measured by the impact of event scale. Regression analysis reveals that the strongest contributors to intrusive stress were being part of the compensation process, resource loss, concerns about air quality, and income. Although being involved with compensation processes was a significant predictor of avoidance behaviors, the strongest contributors to avoidance behaviors were resource loss, air quality concern, income, being male, minority status, and community attachment. Beliefs that the compensation process was as distressing as the oil spill also significantly contributed to intrusive stress and avoidance behaviors. This research represents a step toward filling a gap in empirical evidence regarding the extent to which protracted compensation processes exacerbate adverse psychosocial impacts of disasters and hinder community recovery.
11. Title: Construction of a Dose–Illness Relationship via Modeling Morbidity and Application to Risk Assessment of Wastewater Reuse.
Authors: Gao, Tingting; Chen, Rong; Liu, Yanzheng; Wang, Xiaochang C.; Li, Yuyou.
Abstract: A disease burden (DB) evaluation for environmental pathogens is generally performed using disability adjusted life years with the aim of providing a quantitative assessment of the health hazard caused by pathogens. A critical step in the preparation for this evaluation is the estimation of morbidity between exposure and disease occurrence. In this study, the method of a traditional dose response analysis was first reviewed, and then a combination of the theoretical basis of a single hit and an infection illness model was performed by incorporating two critical factors: the “infective coefficient” and “infection duration.” This allowed a dose–morbidity model to be built for direct use in DB calculations. In addition, human experimental data for typical intestinal pathogens were obtained for model validation, and the results indicated that the model was well fitted and could be further used for morbidity estimation. On this basis, a real case of a water reuse project was selected for model application, and the morbidity as well as the DB caused by intestinal pathogens during water reuse was evaluated. The results show that the DB attributed to Enteroviruses was significant, while that for enteric bacteria was negligible. Therefore, water treatment technology should be further improved to reduce the exposure risk of Enteroviruses. Since road flushing was identified as the major exposure route, human contact with reclaimed water through this pathway should be limited. The methodology proposed for model construction not only makes up for missing data of morbidity during risk evaluation, but is also necessary to quantify the maximum possible DB.
12. Title: Human Dose Response Data for Francisella tularensis and a Dose and Time Dependent Mathematical Model of Early Phase Fever Associated with Tularemia After Inhalation Exposure.
Authors: McClellan, Gene; Crary, David; Thurman, Alec; Coleman, Margaret; Thran, Brandolyn.
Abstract: Military health risk assessors, medical planners, operational planners, and defense system developers require knowledge of human responses to doses of biothreat agents to support force health protection and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear (CBRN) defense missions. This article reviews extensive d
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îgdmwˆgd)w¤gdóSåata from 118 human volunteers administered aerosols of the bacterial agent Francisella tularensis, strain Schu S4, which causes tularemia. The data set includes incidence of early phase febrile illness following administration of well characterized inhaled doses of F. tularensis. Supplemental data on human body temperature profiles over time available from de identified case reports is also presented. A unified, logically consistent model of early phase febrile illness is described as a lognormal dose response function for febrile illness linked with a stochastic time profile of fever. Three parameters are estimated from the human data to describe the time profile: incubation period or onset time for fever; rise time of fever; and near maximum body temperature. Inhaled dose dependence and variability are characterized for each of the three parameters. These parameters enable a stochastic model for the response of an exposed population through incorporation of individual by individual variability by drawing random samples from the statistical distributions of these three parameters for each individual. This model provides risk assessors and medical decisionmakers reliable representations of the predicted health impacts of early phase febrile illness for as long as one week after aerosol exposures of human populations to F. tularensis.
13. Title: Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan to Inform Vaccination Strategies in Undervaccinated Subpopulations.
Authors: Duintjer Tebbens, Radboud J.; Thompson, Kimberly M.; Pallansch, Mark A.; Cochi, Stephen L.; Ehrhardt, Derek T.; Farag, Noha H.; Hadler, Stephen C.; Hampton, Lee M.; Martinez, Maureen; Wassilak, Steve G. F.
Abstract: Due to security, access, and programmatic challenges in areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan, both countries continue to sustain indigenous wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission and threaten the success of global polio eradication and oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) cessation. We fitted an existing differential equation based poliovirus transmission and OPV evolution model to Pakistan and Afghanistan using four subpopulations to characterize the well vaccinated and undervaccinated subpopulations in each country. We explored retrospective and prospective scenarios for using inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) in routine immunization or supplemental immunization activities (SIAs). The undervaccinated subpopulations sustain the circulation of serotype 1 WPV and serotype 2 circulating vaccine derived poliovirus. We find a moderate impact of past IPV use on polio incidence and population immunity to transmission mainly due to (1) the boosting effect of IPV for individuals with preexisting immunity from a live poliovirus infection and (2) the effect of IPV only on oropharyngeal transmission for individuals without preexisting immunity from a live poliovirus infection. Future IPV use may similarly yield moderate benefits, particularly if access to undervaccinated subpopulations dramatically improves. However, OPV provides a much greater impact on transmission and the incremental benefit of IPV in addition to OPV remains limited. This study suggests that despite the moderate effect of using IPV in SIAs, using OPV in SIAs remains the most effective means to stop transmission, while limited IPV resources should prioritize IPV use in routine immunization.
14. Title: A Mathematical Model for Pathogen Cross Contamination Dynamics during the Postharvest Processing of Leafy Greens.
Authors: Mokhtari, Amir; Oryang, David; Chen, Yuhuan; Pouillot, Regis; Van Doren, Jane.
Abstract: We developed a probabilistic mathematical model for the postharvest processing of leafy greens focusing on Escherichia coli O157:H7 contamination of fresh cut romaine lettuce as the case study. Our model can (i) support the investigation of cross contamination scenarios, and (ii) evaluate and compare different risk mitigation options. We used an agent based modeling framework to predict the pathogen prevalence and levels in bags of fresh cut lettuce and quantify spread of E. coli O157:H7 from contaminated lettuce to surface areas of processing equipment. Using an unbalanced factorial design, we were able to propagate combinations of random values assigned to model inputs through different processing steps and ranked statistically significant inputs with respect to their impacts on selected model outputs. Results indicated that whether contamination originated on incoming lettuce heads or on the surface areas of processing equipment, pathogen prevalence among bags of fresh cut lettuce and batches was most significantly impacted by the level of free chlorine in the flume tank and frequency of replacing the wash water inside the tank. Pathogen levels in bags of fresh cut lettuce were most significantly influenced by the initial levels of contamination on incoming lettuce heads or surface areas of processing equipment. The influence of surface contamination on pathogen prevalence or levels in fresh cut bags depended on the location of that surface relative to the flume tank. This study demonstrates that developing a flexible yet mathematically rigorous modeling tool, a virtual laboratory, can provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of individual and combined risk mitigation options.
15. Title: Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from Consumption of Alfalfa Sprouts and Evaluation of the Public Health Impact of Sprout Seed Treatment and Spent Irrigation Water Testing.
Authors: Chen, Yuhuan; Pouillot, Régis; Santillana Farakos, Sofia M.; Duret, Steven; Spungen, Judith; Shakir, Fazila; Homola, Patricia A.; Dennis, Sherri; Van Doren, Jane M.; Fu, Tong Jen.
Abstract: We developed a risk assessment of human salmonellosis associated with consumption of alfalfa sprouts in the United States to evaluate the public health impact of applying treatments to seeds (0 5 log10 reduction in Salmonella) and testing spent irrigation water (SIW) during production. The risk model considered variability and uncertainty in Salmonella contamination in seeds, Salmonella growth and spread during sprout production, sprout consumption, and Salmonella dose response. Based on an estimated prevalence of 2.35% for 6.8 kg seed batches and without interventions, the model predicted 76,600 (95% confidence interval (CI) 15,400 248,000) cases/year. Risk reduction (by 5 to 7 fold) predicted from a 1 log10 seed treatment alone was comparable to SIW testing alone, and each additional 1 log10 seed treatment was predicted to provide a greater risk reduction than SIW testing. A 3 log10 or a 5 log10 seed treatment reduced the predicted cases/year to 139 (95% CI 33 448) or 1.4 (95% CI <�1 4.5), respectively. Combined with SIW testing, a 3 log10 or 5 log10 seed treatment reduced the cases/year to 45 (95% CI 10 146) or <�1 (95% CI <�1 1.5), respectively. If the SIW coverage was less complete (i.e., less representative), a smaller risk reduction was predicted, e.g., a combined 3 log10 seed treatment and SIW testing with 20% coverage resulted in an estimated 92 (95% CI 22 298) cases/year. Analysis of alternative scenarios using different assumptions for key model inputs showed that the predicted relative risk reductions are robust. This risk assessment provides a comprehensive approach for evaluating the public health impact of various interventions in a sprout production system.
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16. Title: Review of Achieving Regulatory Excellence.
Authors: Elliott, E. Donald.
Abstract: The article reviews the book Achieving Regulatory Excellence, by Cary Coglianese.
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